National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Fall COPC Meeting Suitland, MD November 14-15, 2007 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

2. Overview • NCEP Overview • Performance Metrics • Computer Status • 2006 Implementations • Upcoming Implementations • Plans for New Building

3. Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. NCEP Review Mission EMC - Environmental Modeling Center HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center NCO - NCEP Central Operations CPC - Climate Prediction Center OPC - Ocean Prediction Center SPC – Storm Prediction Center SEC – Space Environment Center TPC – Tropical Prediction Center AWC – Aviation Weather Center CPC EMC HPC NCO OPC SEC AWC SPC TPC Vision Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

6. Space Weather Name Change As of October 1, 2007, the former Space Environment Center has a new name: Space Weather Prediction Center Need to solidify relative roles with regard to NOAA and DoD, especially for operational civilian prediction functions/backup and access to numerical model based prediction.

7. Space Weather Prediction CenterEvolving Customer Base Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

8. Model Performance Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

9. Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Number of Hits (Millions) 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Product Generation Summary Comms Upgrade

10. Computing Capability Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily • Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over • Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007 • Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009

11. Central Computing System • Scheduled for Fall 2009 • Will shift primary computer operations from Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA) • Will also upgrade communication circuits

12. 2007 Implementations

13. 2007 Implementations

14. 2007 Implementations

15. 2008 Planned Implementations

16. 2008 Planned Implementations

17. 2008 Planned Implementations

18. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ* Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

19. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Current - 2007 Data processing Current (2007) GDAS NAM analys GFS analysis GFS SREF HUR NAM GENS/NAEFS RDAS AQ RTOFS CFS

20. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches • Multi-model ensembles • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

21. Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 - 2015 Computing factor: 81 Rap Refresh Reforecast SREF WAV HUR NAM CFS MFS Global GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ CFS & MFS Regional RDAS Hydro GDAS

22. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square) Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006 40 spaces for visiting scientists Construction Schedule

23. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Construction photographs – November, 2007

24. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NCWCP NORTH

25. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction U Md Silver Spring NCWCP 1 Mile

26. Summary • NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers • Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs • ConOps • NUOPC - models • Backup! • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist • Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified • Highest Priority Items: • Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA • will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.