Welcome to Focus 2011

1. Welcome to Focus 2011 8 February 2011 CAPT Dylan Schmorrow

2. Overview • Why are we here? • The Need • The Vision • How do we get there? • The challenge space • Rigor versus intuition • Modeling and simulation • The HSCB Program • Vision and themes • Phases I and II • How success is gauged • Engagement and coordination • Highlights of our work • Where we are going • Where you come in

3. Why are we here?

4. The Operating Environment Conventional Warfare Irregular Warfare The center of gravity is usually the indigenous population The center of gravity is often the adversary’s military forces and political leadership Understanding the physical terrain is key Understanding the social & cultural terrain is key Regular forces of nation states that are separate and distinct from the civilian population Often, irregular state forces or non-state networks embedded within civilian population Focus on the kinetic destruction of the adversaries warfighting material from stand-off distances Focus on non-kinetic influence of local and regional populations requiring face-to-face interaction

5. Quadrennial Defense Review

6. QDR Technology Area Study –Building Security Capacity of Partner States (BSC) • Whole-of-Government activities that directly support the development of the capacity and capability of foreign security forces and their sustaining institutions. • HSCB-sponsored technologies support most of the top 10 enabling technologies for BSC: 1. Immersive and Mixed Reality Simulations 2. Information Sharing 3. Human Socio-cultural Multi-scale, Hybrid, and Federated Modeling 4. Adaptive Planning & Assessment Tools 5. HSC Knowledge Management Enterprise 6. Human Language Technology 7. Social Networking Tools and Methods 8. Geo-spatial Information and Services 9. Knowledge Visualization 10. Interactive Language Training Tools

7. Long-Term Vision • Soldier as cultural chameleon, • Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects across the PMESII spectrum • Reliable forecasting of regional stability on a short time scale • Routine exploitation of social media for intelligence, understanding and engagement, training, info sharing and collaboration • Ability to track and shape viral communicationacross distributed dynamic social networks • Data, technologies, and methods support a timely, relevant Data to Decisions process • High fidelity “social radar”

8. How do we realize the vision?

9. Understand the Landscape International Federally-funded Industry IR&D Commercial DoD-funded INVEST WHERE WE MUST… LEVERAGE EVERYTHING ELSE Changing World DoD Capabilities DoD Industrial Base DoD Core Technologies Dynamic Threat Space Evolving Technology

10. Strategic Imperatives • Accelerate delivery of technical capabilities to win the current fight • Prepare for an uncertain future • Reduce the cost, acquisition time and risk of our major defense acquisition program • Develop world class science, technology, engineering, and mathematics capabilities for the DoD and the Nation

11. Being Rigorous • Military processes and tasks in most domains are reflected in doctrine based workflows with associated tools • Issue: Opinions in political/socio-cultural domains are easily challenged by informed personnel and senior decision makers • Solution: Socio-cultural analysis must incorporate a environment that allows users to defend, explain, and bound conclusions and recommendations and point to the rigor that allowed their formulation. • The environment must be: • Warfighter responsive • Focused on doctrine/process • Driven by evidence • Grounded in scientifically defensible data and theory • Model-rich

12. Modeling/Simulation Need • DoD Strategic Planning Guidance FY2008-2013 Study recommended: • Increased FY08-13 S&T investment for HSCB capabilities • New BA4 investment to support product maturation and transition • Automated assessment of attitudes, networks, & strategic communication • Automated detection of sentiment, bias, intention, deception • Prediction of adversary reactions • Gaming for virtual training and mission rehearsal • Federated databases to inform dynamic network models • Open architecture platforms for interoperability Research, Science communities have identified highest priorities: • Theory Development • Modeling Uncertainty • Data Collection Methods • Federated Models • Model Validation • Tools and Infrastructure 2008 National Research Council report 2009 Defense Science Board report

13. “But these models can’t predict…” • The models of social science still are our best synthesis but … • They are incomplete • The translation of “raw” socio-cultural data from the real world into model parameters is unavoidably imprecise • The translation of model results back to real-world implications is also imprecise. • Unlike definitive physical models, deeply uncertain models cannot be used for making point predictions We can use these models to explore and understand Operational usage of these systems will entail a shift from seeking optimal decisions to seeking robust decisions – developing options that work across the broadest swath of plausible futures

14. This is Hard • Human behavior is inherently difficult to understand • Empirical studies are difficult to conduct • Requires multidisciplinary approaches across multiple domains • Enduring technical challenges of computational modeling • Data • Hybrid modeling • Transparency • V&V Figure Source: Behavioral Modeling and Simulation, page 56.

15. Scientifically Valid Solutions for End-Users • COCOMs, HTTs, and other users have clearly stated needs for socio-cultural awareness capabilities • Need to run fast, do good systems engineering, and integrate technologies into needed capabilities • COCOMs need 80% solution now • Push for sustainment but in some cases capabilities might just be a one off and not go into a POR • Important to focus on operational priorities, leveraging academia and industry, but • Also important to be rigorous, with a solid foundation in scientifically valid basic and applied research (e.g. Minerva) Innovation, speed, and agility

16. Signs of Progress • 2006 • Technical socio-cultural behavior capability drawn from academia, labs, industry • No investment in resources to port or extend relevant data, knowledge and tools • No data and collection methods to support understanding, models, tool development • Models not broad enough to cover full range of military operations, nor detailed enough to forecast behaviors at scale • Limited capacity to support integrated modeling of strategic/operational/tactical planning and operations • No general use S&T to achieve the ‘language agile cultural chameleon’ soldier • Sociocultural behavior R&D highly distributed with limited coordination and few DoD-wide solutions • Now • OSD, Army TRAC, AF, Special Op, AFRICOM, EUCOM and others have programs • Increased DoD investments in data collection, storage, and transference • Data collection tools and methods emerging along with models and tools • Strong progress being made in hybrid modeling and integration of model output • Requirement for integrated modeling not often articulated, but progress on numerous fronts • Progress being made, but general use S&T solution for individual soldier remains long term • Increasingly coordinated governance through major programs (HSCB, Minerva, SMA) Core sociocultural capability Data and tools transference Data and collection methods Models scope and scale Model integration across levels Gap at individual soldier level Governance of sociocultural R&D

17. The OSD Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Program

18. Program Overview • Lead DoD innovation in development, application, and transition of social cultural methods, models, and tools to meet operational needs • Integrated portfolio of R&D • Understanding sociocultural dynamics of human behavior • Building computational behavior models • Improving data collection and management • Defining HSCB competencies and training methods • Developing tools for analysis and visualization • Themes • Tackle hard problems with great research in theory building and modeling • Ensure rigor through assessment and concrete metrics • Transition to POR and warfighters in need • Provide technology leadership across department • Promote coordination and collaboration

19. A Sample of the Hard Problems Being Addressed • What factors influence religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity? • How are decisions made in illicit cross-border supply chains? • What narratives drive extremist behavior, and how can we better detect and track their use? • How to leverage data mining to better predict insurgent activities? • How to find and analyze mission-relevant sentiment in multiple languages? • Can online gaming be used to study behavioral models? • How can analytic systems visualize socioculturalfactors and the attendant uncertainty? • How do information and arguments propagate?

20. OSD HSCB Program Objectives Component Development, Prototypes Advanced Technology Development Applied Research Modeling Visualization Training Data

21. HSCB Portfolio OSD Phase IISBIR OSD HSCB OSD Phase I SBIR Analytics and Modeling Cultural Behavioral Model Docking (6.2) Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups (6.2 ) Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives (6.2) Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO Efforts (6.2) Tactical Irregular Warfare (IW) Analytic Capabilities (6.3) Social Network Analysis Reach back Capability (6.3) Modeling Strategic Contexts (6.2) Social and Cultural Model Embedding Technologies (6.2) Architecture to Support Socio-Cultural Modeling (6.2) Breadth-Depth Triangulation for V&V (6.3) US Agency for International Development (6.3) US European Command (6.3) Simulation of Afghanistan Opium Economic Systems (6.2) Cultural Influences on Intertemporal Reasoning (6.2) Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife Model (ERIS) (6.3) Model Evaluation, Selection, and Application (MESA) (6.3) US Africa Command (6.3) US Pacific Command (6.3) Extremist Ideological Influences on Terrorist Decision Making (6.2) Understanding RSM: Relief Social Media (6.2) Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support (6.3) Automatic Bias Detection and Ranking (6.3) Automated Discovery of Insurgent Behavior (6.3) Modeling Information Propagation for more Effective Influence Operations (6.3) US Special Operations Command (6.3) HSCB Modeling Decision Support Framework (PRISM) (6.4) Automated Network Construction (OSD SBIR) Dynamic Meta- Network Measures (OSD SBIR) Neuromorphic Models of Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) (OSD SBIR) Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis (OSD SBIR) Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting (OSD SBIR) A Cultural Architecture Generator for Immersion Training in Virtual Environments (OSD SBIR) Data Generation Visualization Training & Education Competitive Adaptation in Terror Networks (6.2) Cross-National Analysis of Islamic Fundamentalism (6.2) Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision Support (6.3) HSCB Training, Strategic Direction and Requirement Development (6.2) Development and Assessment Methods for Cultural Capabilities (6.2) Mining Afghan Lessons From The Soviet Era (6.2) HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework (6.4) Identifying Dynamic Environments for Cultural Competencies (InDECCs) (6.2) Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for Training (6.3) Unifying Social Frameworks (6.2) Enhancing Warfighter Cross-Cultural Awareness (6.3) Task-Based Communications Training System (6.3) HSCB Mobile Support to HA/DR Operations (6.3) Visualization Methods and Tools for HSCB Models (OSD SBIR) Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations (6.3) Game-based Simulation for Human, Social, Culture Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR) Cultural Awareness for Military Operations (OSD SBIR) In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural Behavioral Data (OSD SBIR) Using Serious Games for Socio-Cultural Scenario Training (OSD SBIR) -

22. HSCB Related SBIR Topic AreasNew Starts • OSD10-HS1: Decision Superiority through Enhanced Cultural Intelligence Forecasting • OSD10-HS2: In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural Behavioral Data • OSD10-HS3: Neuromorphic Models of HumanSocial Cultural Behavior (HSCB) • OSD10-HS4: Dynamic Meta-Network Measures • OSD10-HS5: Visualization Methods and Tools for Human, Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Models • OSD10-HS6: Automated Network Construction • OSD10-HS7: Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis • OSD10-HS8: An Adaptive Cultural Trainer for Development of Cultural Aptitude in Warfighters • OSD10-HS9: Developing and Modeling Social Networks inside Technology Poor Societies

23. Program Milestones • Established wide-ranging portfolio of projects spanning 6.2 to 6.4 RDT&E levels with awardees from industry, academia, and government • Developed partnerships with Programs of Record • Engaged with Combatant Commands (COCOMs) and other operational users • Organized three national conferences with diverse research and operational communities • Provided operational support and tools transition for nearly all COCOMs

24. Disciplines of HSCB Principal Investigators • 56% of Principal Investigators have Social and Behavioral Science degree(s) • 30% have computer science or modeling/simulation background

25. How do we gauge success?

26. The Impact of Good Modeling • Enhance situation awareness (SA) • Perceive (monitor, model, visualize) more socio-cultural factors • More accurately comprehend the meaning of a situation (because socio-cultural factors are accounted for) • Project a broader range of futures, providing more realistic account of HSCB problems and scenarios • Enhance option awareness (OA) • Perceive more completely and with greater accuracy how available options for action perform across the landscape of plausible futures • For each of the available options, better anticipate and distinguish which socio-cultural factors will lead to desired outcomes and which to undesired outcomes • Increase ability to use these factors to create options, branches, and sequels that improve performance across the landscape of plausible futures Models will explore SA/OA uncertainty, visualization will reveal distinctions, data will feed a wide range of models, and training will achieve agility

27. HSCB Program Metrics and Assessment Processes Processes in place to independently verify and validate ongoing efforts based on project specific criteria • Technical and Programmatic Reviews by PM at Project and Portfolio Levels • Technical Performance Evaluation Events • Transition Demonstration Events • Wargames and Experimentation Events

28. HSCB Technologies are in Use • While the domain has limited clear requirements, numerous operational entities have begun use of relevant technologies • USSOCOM – MISO and other • USCENTCOM – AFPAK COE and Human Terrain Analysis Team • AFRICOM – Serengeti • USSTRATCOM JIOWC • US Army TRADOC • OSD CAPE • ISAF • USPACOM • USJFCOM • USEUCOM • JIEDDO

29. Transition Success Stories • Transition of HSCB data ingestion and modeling capabilities to US Special Operations Command • Transitioning HSCB behavioral modeling capabilities to United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) to support their cultural geography model and wargame • Transitioned geospatial and social network analysis HSCB capabilities to US Special Operations Command, Pacific • Prototyped use of automated techniques to rapidly extract persons, events, and sentiments in support of USAFRICOM • Supporting ISAF Joint Command Headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan.

30. Engagement and Leadership

31. Socio-Cultural Behavior Domains and Relationships NEAR TERM LONG TERM COLLABORATE ENGAGE COORDINATE INFORM DARPA USMC HSCB ARI Minerva ONR TRADOC AFRL USDI

32. User Engagement and Applied Science Leadership • Working directly with COCOMs and other users • Cobra Gold Exercise Participation • Held first HSCB capabilities openhouse • NSTC Subcommittee on Human Factors for Homeland and National Security • IW M&S SCG • Congressionally Mandated User Group • Active at national conferences • HSCB national conferences • Focus2010 had over 600 participants from USG, academia, and industry

33. Promoting Coordination and Collaboration • OSD-Policy • Coordinating with Minerva Program • Congressional Staff • Engaged with congressional staff to define requirements of HASC/SASC requests • ASD R&E Rapid Fielding Office • Coordinating with strategic communication and SMA activities in ASD R&E RFO • DTRA • Assisted DTRA in development of HSCB relevant BAA • Interagency (State, USAID, USG-C) • Conducting outreach to senior executives at DOS to determine requirements and facilitate interagency cooperation • International • Engaging with TTCP and NATO on metrics and tools to support comprehensive approach to operations

34. Where we are Going

35. ONR BAA • The Office of Naval Research just released a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) requesting proposals for research sponsored through the HSCB Modeling Program. • Topics: • Data collection and management • Multi-scale and hybrid modeling of regional and subregional stability • Training methodologies • Analysis and modeling of non-kinetic COA • Expected outputs for all projects: • published research findings and data • Methodologies and Designs • training materials • analytic frameworks, Ontologies, and/or taxonomies • Expected outputs of advanced technology projects (in addition to above) • prototype software HSCB Domains

36. Thank you, and a Challenge

37. Backups

38. WikiDB Social Network Analysis Reachback Capability (SNARC) for ISAF OBJECTIVE: Develop/integrate tools, models, processes, and skills necessary to implement and operate a social network reachback capability HYPOTHESIS: Additional tools, models, processes, skills will assist ISAF in the Request for Information (RFI) process MILITARY RELEVANCE/OPERATIONAL IMPACT: MITRE has been providing direct support to the ISAF since November 2009.  Based on this work and interaction, the need for SNARC was identified in June 2010 to address the Network Effects Cell’s need to collect information on social networks for the District Development Program (DDP). The HSCB Modeling program performers have been tasked to support this sponsor, and explore technology transition TECHNICAL APPROACH: MITRE: Transition focused technical leadership for integration of HSCB research technologies in support of ISAF LANL: Assess opium trade-based corruption, and the population’s perception and support for opium trafficking Milcord: Bayesian influence model represents survey questions as nodes, computes relations among answers NU: Study to determine the robustness of one centrality measure as the network is randomized (errors introduced) UC Davis: Event analysis (IEDs) focused on key drivers (coalition activity) and relationship to socio-economic signatures PERFORMERS: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Milcord Northeastern University, University of California-Davis SCHEDULE: (JUN 2010 – OCT 2011) JUN 2010: Project kickoff with 4 HSCB performers OCT 2010: Proof of concept demonstrated to ISAF including response to Network Effect Cell (the NEC) RFIs Periodic meetings with ISAF to respond to RFIs NOV 2010: As directed, engage with more HSCB performers Starting Deliver Techniques, Tactics, and Procedures JAN 2011: (TTPs) for selected HSCB tools, models OCT 2011: Train the NEC analysts on selected HSCB capabilities Product: Applying computational models to answering ISAF information requests on 2-week cycles

39. Phase III Plans • Continue maturing Phase Two investments • Emphasize new 6.4 investments • Move technology developed at all levels of investment into acquisition • Demonstrate an end-to-end application of HSCB modeling to intelligence analysis, operations planning, operations analysis, and training • Lead R&D coordination working closely with US Department of Defense partners

40. What is our view for the future? National & Tactical Systems ` defenselink.mil Awareness & DIMEDecision Making Build Capacity PMESIIEffects http://rtf-ministries.org/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/multi.333152129.jpg PMESII Effects PMESII Effects PMESII Effects http://happybrainstorm.com/wp-includes/images/Belief.jpg defenselink.mil

41. Where You Come In

42. Highlighted Projects – Applied Research • Modeling Strategic Contexts - Support analysis of international conflicts by providing rich models of strategic context • Variations in Islamic Fundamentalism - Understand factors influencing religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity • Simulation of Opium Supply Chain - Develop models of adaptive decision-making in illicit cross-border supply chains • Socio-Cultural Modeling Architecture – Develop coherent, flexible, extensible data-to-model service oriented architecture for socio-cultural modeling and analysis • Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives - Develop models and decision making tools that allow rapid assessment of terrorist propaganda and development of effective counter-measures

43. Highlighted Projects – Advanced Technology Development • Modeling Information Propagation - Aid influence operations by providing a model of information propagation that supports analysis of the effectiveness of arguments and media. • Automated Discovery and Prediction of Insurgent Behavior - Leverage data mining to provide commanders with capability to predict insurgent activities and behaviors • Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations - Semantic Answer Engine for the complex operations community to support modeling and simulation, training, and tactical decision-aid applications • Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support - Develop a next-generation automated (1) political event and (2) sentiment coder • Irregular Warfare Analytic Capabilities - Provide analytic methods, models, and tools suites to support examination of impacts on operational environment (specifically, population) by reachback analysis teams and deployed analyst cells.

44. Highlighted Projects – Component Development and Prototypes • Transition of Analytic Tools - Facilitate transition of fusion cell analytic tools by creating a “Help” system the incorporates best practices heuristics and visualizations. • Skope Toolkit Enhancement - Enhance USSOCOM Skope’s Behavioral Modeling Toolkit, to develop additional modular, web-enabled, flexible tools focused on discovery and characterization of non-obvious relationships among people, places, things. • APERTURE - Design, develop and implement an open source interactive visualization framework and API.

45. Program Phase II (FY10/11) Significant increased emphasis on developing reusable models (10%)

46. Phase II Program Profile – Major Research Challenges

47. Phase I Program Profile - Awardees

48. Phase I Program Profile - Requirements

49. Phase I Program Profile – Research Challenge Areas

50. Phase II Program Profile – Awardees Projects conducted by Small Businesses increased by 10%, projects conducted by Big Businesses decreased by 9%