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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides a comprehensive update on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes highlights, rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, temperature anomalies, and forecasts. For more information, visit the provided link.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 November 2011 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Above-average rainfall was observed over northwestern South America, southern Brazil (20ºS-25ºS), central Paraguay, and portions of northern Argentina. • For 21-27 November, above-average rainfall is predicted for southern Peru, western Bolivia, and eastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, western and extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For 28 November – 4 December, above-average rainfall is predicted for northern and northeastern South America including Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northeastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall is predicted mainly over western Brazil and central Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Above-average rainfall was observed over northwestern South America, southern Brazil (20ºS-25ºS), central Paraguay, and portions of northern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was mainly observed to the west of 60ºW (except for portions of Colombia and northern Peru) and south of 15ºS (except for Paraguay). Above-average rainfall was found over central and eastern Brazil and Guyana.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin. Below-average rainfall has been observed over the Brazilian Plateau as well. • 90-day totals are also below average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and above-average SSTs are found in most of the tropical Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During 12-18 November 2011, a weak anomalous upper tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation (A) was located over northwestern South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was found over northwestern South America, southern Brazil, and Argentina, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over northeastern Brazil and northwestern Argentina. A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 12-18 November 2011, below-average temperatures were observed over southern Brazil and Paraguay, and above-average temperatures were found over southeastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 21 Nov 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 21 Nov 2011– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (21-27 November), above-average rainfall is predicted for southern Peru, western Bolivia, and eastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, western and extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (28 November – 4 December), above-average rainfall is predicted for northern and northeastern South America including Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northeastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall is predicted mainly over western Brazil and central Peru.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 7 Nov 2011 Valid 14-20 Nov 2011 Forecast from 14 Nov 2011 Valid 14-20 Nov 2011 Observed 14-20 Nov 2011

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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