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Meteorology 415 Review of ERIE forecast Sept 25, 2012

Fall 2012. Meteorology 415 Review of ERIE forecast Sept 25, 2012. Location – Erie, PA. Erie Obs. KERI 251751Z 19014KT 10SM BKN100 19/07 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T01940067 10206 20111 58016= KERI 251851Z 20013G21KT 10SM BKN075 OVC100 20/08 A2997=

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Meteorology 415 Review of ERIE forecast Sept 25, 2012

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  1. Fall 2012 Meteorology 415Review of ERIE forecastSept 25, 2012

  2. Location – Erie, PA

  3. Erie Obs • KERI 251751Z 19014KT 10SM BKN100 19/07 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T01940067 10206 20111 58016= • KERI 251851Z 20013G21KT 10SM BKN075 OVC100 20/08 A2997= • KERI 251951Z 17014KT 10SM OVC047 18/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T01830078= • KERI 252051Z 18011G18KT 10SM OVC055 18/07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01780072 56016= • KERI 252151Z 17011G18KT 10SM OVC065 18/08 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01780078= • KERI 252251Z 17012KT 10SM OVC055 17/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T01720083= • KERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003=

  4. Erie - Obs KERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003= KERI 260051Z 20012G23KT 10SM SCT039 OVC050 16/11 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/0038 SLP145 T01610106= KERI 260137Z 18014G19KT 10SM BKN026 OVC033 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 P0000= KERI 260151Z 18012KT 10SM OVC024 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 SLP147 P0000 T01500117= KERI 260251Z 19014G20KT 10SM OVC018 15/12 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 60000 T01500117 51004= KERI 260351Z AUTO 19011G21KT 10SM OVC021 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122= KERI 260451Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM OVC017 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122 402060111= KERI 260537Z AUTO 20009KT 6SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2= KERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002= KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2=

  5. Erie - Obs KERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002= KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2= KERI 260651Z AUTO 19010KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/13 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01500133 $= KERI 260732Z AUTO 19007KT 9SM FEW009 BKN015 OVC027 15/13 A2995 RMK AO2 $= KERI 260751Z AUTO 18009KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T01500139 $= KERI 260851Z AUTO 18008KT 6SM BR OVC026 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01560139 55007 $= KERI 260951Z AUTO 18007KT 7SM BKN017 OVC023 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01560139 $= KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $= KERI 261038Z 19007KT 3SM -RA BR FEW009 OVC015 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $= KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994= KERI 261048Z 18008KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0002 $= KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 SLP139 P0002 T01560139 $= KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 CIG 015 NE P0000 $= KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994= KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995= KERI 261151Z 19008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC018 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE01B35 SLP144 P0001 60003 70003 T01560144 10156 20144 53007 $= KERI 261158Z 18006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC016 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $=

  6. Synoptic Reports

  7. Upper Air Observations

  8. Satellite Observations

  9. Radar Observations

  10. Model Guidance

  11. Model Guidance

  12. More Model Guidance Even the LAMP forecast loses skill after 8-10 hours ...

  13. Verifications

  14. Scores

  15. Up close and personal

  16. Lessons Learned • Erie is a breezy place…it is easy for the wind to gust >20kts – exposure is good • A steady, persistent wind from the south at night, when the PBL decouples, will lead to divergence along the south shoreline and dissipation of echoes as they approach. • A due south wind has a marginal amount of a downslope component and can impede dewpoint rises!

  17. Erie Temperatures – 18z • T1 < 50 0 • T1 53 0 • T1 56 0 • T1 59 0 A • T1 62 0 B • T1 65 0 C • T1 68 0 D • T1 71 0 E • T1 74 0 • T1 77 0 • T1 > 80 0 • 18z/25 0

  18. Erie Temperatures – 00z • T2 < 46 0 • T2 49 0 • T2 52 0 • T2 55 0 A • T2 58 0 B • T2 61 0 C • T2 64 0 D • T2 67 0 E • T2 70 0 • T2 73 0 • T2 > 76 0 • 00z/26 0

  19. Erie Temperatures – 06z • T3 < 45 0 • T3 48 0 • T3 51 0 • T3 54 0 A • T3 57 0 B • T3 60 0 C • T3 63 0 D • T3 66 0 E • T3 69 0 • T3 72 0 • T3 > 75 0 • 06z/26 0

  20. Erie Temperatures – 12z • T4 < 44 0 • T4 47 0 • T4 50 0 • T4 53 0 A • T4 56 0 B • T4 59 0 C • T4 62 0 D • T4 65 0 E • T4 68 0 • T4 71 0 • T4 > 74 0 • 12z/26 0

  21. POP Category • A.)0-20 • B.) 21-40 • C.) 41-60 • D.) 61-80 • E.) 81-100 Probability of Precip POP1 – 18-0z

  22. POP Category • A.)0-20 • B.) 21-40 • C.) 41-60 • D.) 61-80 • E.) 81-100 Probability of Precip POP2 – 6-12z

  23. Amt Category • A.)None - Trace • B.) .01-.10” • C.) .11-.25” • D.) .26-.50” • E.) >.50” QPF Precip Amount: 18z/25-12z/26

  24. % Time Category 0-12z/26 • A.)0-20 • B.) 21-40 • C.) 41-60 • D.) 61-80 • E.) 81-100

  25. Dewpoint at 00z/26 • Td <38 0 • Td 41 0 • Td 44 0 • Td 47 0 A • Td 50 0 B • Td 53 0 C • Td 56 0 D • Td 59 0 E • Td 62 0 • Td 65 0 • Td >68 0 • 00z/26 0

  26. Wind Direction at 00z/26 • Wind Dir 361-030 0 • Wind Dir 031-060 0 • Wind Dir 061-090 0 • Wind Dir 091-120 0 • Wind Dir 121-150 0 A • Wind Dir 151-180 0 B • Wind Dir 181-210 0 C • Wind Dir 211-240 0 D • Wind Dir 241-270 0 E • Wind Dir 271-300 0 • Wind Dir 301-330 0 • Wind Dir 331-360 0 • Wind Dir VRBL 0 • 00z/26 0

  27. Wind Speed at 00z/26 • Wind Speed <5kt 0 A • Wind Speed 5-10kt 0 B • Wind Speed 11-15kt 0 C • Wind Speed 16-20kt 0 D • Wind Speed 21-25kt 0 E • Wind Speed 26-30kt 0 • Wind Speed 31-35kt 0 • Wind Speed 36-40kt 0 • Wind Speed 41-45kt 0 • Wind Speed 46-50kt 0 • Wind Speed >50kt 0 • 00z/26 0

  28. Cloud Cover - • A.)0-20 • B.) 21-40 • C.) 41-60 • D.) 61-80 • E.) 81-100 • Cloud Cover • 18-0z/25-26

  29. Events A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100 • Any Cb 0 • Liquid >=0.35" 0 • Vis <=3miles (4500m) 0 • Vis <=5miles (7500m) 0 • Thunderstorm 0 • Lightning 0 • Gusts >=20kts 0 • Gusts >=25kts 0 • Ceiling <=2,000ft 0 • Ceiling <=1,000ft 0 • Liquid >=0.15" 0 • Temp >=70F (21C) 0 • Vis <=1 mile (1500m) 0 • Wx from 18z/25-12z/26 A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100 A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100 A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100

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