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Hatchery Group Progress

Hatchery Group Progress. Contributors: Chris Beasley – Quantitative Consultants Rich Carmichael – ODFW Marc Porter – ESSA Craig Rabe – Nez Perce Tribe Jay Hesse – Nez Perce Tribe Kathryn Kostow – ODFW Dave Fast – Yakama Nation Bill Bosch – Yakama Nation Pete Hahn – WDFW

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Hatchery Group Progress

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  1. Hatchery Group Progress Contributors: Chris Beasley – Quantitative Consultants Rich Carmichael – ODFW Marc Porter – ESSA Craig Rabe – Nez Perce Tribe Jay Hesse – Nez Perce Tribe Kathryn Kostow – ODFW Dave Fast – Yakama Nation Bill Bosch – Yakama Nation Pete Hahn – WDFW Tim Dalton - ODFW

  2. Background – Basis for Step 6 Approach • Three categories of hatcheries • harvest augmentation – 11 questions • supplementation – 25 questions • conservation – 5 questions • 65 performance measures • No “decision rules” developed: • no standards to justify statistical requirements • no “if-then” relationships • “acceptable or specified limits”

  3. Background – Basis for Step 6 Approach • Small scale – some effectiveness mostly operations: • stray rate • H:N ratios • Large scale – mostly effectiveness, and necessary to frame precision: • proportion strays • relative reproductive success

  4. Focus of Steps 6 and 7: Questions at a larger scale • Straying • Relative reproductive success

  5. Straying • Definition • Why are we interested? • Number/Location/Composition • Sample everywhere or stratify and expand: • distance • stream order • habitat quality • hatchery influence • species composition

  6. Straying Cost: • survey (annual) existing cost +: • high design (97@25k) = $2,425,000 • moderate design (69@30k) = $2,070,000 • low design (38@35k) = $1,330,000 • duration – decreases as a function of effort: • annual • opportunistic

  7. Relative Reproductive Success • Definition • Why are we interested? • Sample everywhere or stratify and expand: • proportion NOR in broodstock • composition of escapement • length of operation • density dependence • target/non-target

  8. Relative Reproductive Success • High design: • genetic parentage analysis • sample adults and progeny • assign juveniles/adults to parents • test effectiveness hypotheses and random mating • duration = dependent on contrast and age of program

  9. Relative Reproductive Success • Low design: • inference via treatment/reference and/or before/after • progeny/parent • change in productivity • duration – minimum two-three generations

  10. Relative Reproductive Success • Tradeoffs: • assumptions regarding local variation • ability to test random mating • number of sites/site selection • parent/offspring regression

  11. Relative Reproductive Success • Cost: • identical sampling infrastructure • identical tagging • average cost: • genetic parentage analysis = • infrastructure and operation 250k • assay and analysis 57k • $307,000 x 6 = $1,842,000 • BACI = $250,000 x 12 = $3,000,000

  12. Next Steps: • Evaluate relevance of questions: • done • Finalize strata. • Simulate. • Evaluate efficacy: • precision • feasibility • cost

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