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COMCEC TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2013

COMCEC TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2013. Dr. Ismail Cagri Ozcan COMCEC Coordination Office . Transport Working Group Meeting. October 8th , 2013 Ankara, Turkey. OUTLINE. IMPORTANCE OF TRANSPORT INDUSTRY WITHIN COMCEC FRAMEWORK SCOPE OF THE OUTLOOK TRANSPORTATION&TRADE

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COMCEC TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2013

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  1. COMCEC TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2013 Dr. IsmailCagriOzcan COMCEC Coordination Office Transport Working Group Meeting October8th, 2013 Ankara, Turkey

  2. OUTLINE • IMPORTANCE OF TRANSPORT INDUSTRY WITHIN COMCEC FRAMEWORK • SCOPE OF THE OUTLOOK • TRANSPORTATION&TRADE • TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE • TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION • TRANSPORTATION&ENVIRONMENT • POLICY IMPLICATIONS

  3. IMPORTANCE OF TRANSPORT INDUSTRY WITHIN COMCEC FRAMEWORK One of the three principles of COMCEC Strategy isenhancing mobility (the other two are strengthening solidarity and improving governance) Transportationis explicitly declared by COMCEC as one of the three priority sectors together with agriculture and tourism Transportationis one of the six cooperation areas (the others are trade, tourism, agriculture, poverty alleviation, and finance) specified by the COMCEC Strategy

  4. SCOPE OF THE OUTLOOK Fourdimensionscoveredbytheoutlook • Transportationandtrade • Transportationinfrastructure • Transportationprivatization • Transportationandenvironment Multi-modalfreighttransportation

  5. TRANSPORTATION&TRADE (1) Total goods trades (excluding oil exports) and LPI scores in OIC countries in 2010

  6. TRANSPORTATION&TRADE (2) 2012 LPI scores and 2012-2013 GCI scores of the OIC countries

  7. TRANSPORTATION&TRADE (3) Change in total fleet (in dead weight tons in thousands) by flag of registration for the 1998-2012 period (1998 value=100)

  8. TRANSPORTATION&TRADE (4) The liner shipping connectivity index by OIC regions in the 2004-2011 period

  9. TRANSPORTATION&TRADE (6) The burden of custom procedures by OIC regions in the 2007-2011 period Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

  10. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE The indexes for the quality of transport infrastructure Source: Compiled by the author using The Global Competitiveness Report

  11. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (1) 1996 1990 1993 1991 1994 1997 First transport PPI project in the OIC Sub-Saharan Africa (Mozambique) First transport PPI project in the OIC MENA (Turkey) 1992 1995 1998 First transport PPI project in the OIC region in Indonesia (first in OIC-Asia) Timeline of the initial transport PPI projects in the OIC region Second OIC Asia country implementing a transport PPI project (Malaysia) Second OIC Sub-Saharan Africa country implementing a transport PPI project (Cameroon) Second OIC MENA country implementing a transport PPI project (Yemen) Source: Prepared by the author using World Bank PPI Database

  12. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (2) Distribution of PPI projects by infrastructure sectors in the 1990-2011 period Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  13. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (3) Distribution of the transport PPI projects by PPI-types in the 1990-2011 period Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  14. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (4) Changes in the cumulative number of PPI projects by regions for the 1990-2011 period

  15. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (5) Changes in the number of PPI projects in OIC regions in the 1990-2011 period Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  16. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (6) Changes in the number of transport PPI projects by regions in the 1990-2011 period Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  17. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (7) Distribution of transport PPI projects by types in the 1990-2011 period Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  18. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (8) Distribution of transport infrastructure PPI projects by modes in the 1990-2011 Source: The World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

  19. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (9) Traditional procurement method Procurement through PPP The comparison of the traditional public procurement with PPP-type procurement Value ($, €, £) Value for money Risks assumed by the government Cost of capital Cost of services provided Source: (Moriarty, 2006)

  20. TRANSPORTATION PRIVATIZATION (10) A successful implementation of a PPP/PPIproject requires: • political and economic stability • sound legal framework • institutional capacity • political commitment and support • transparent and competitive tender procedures free from corruption • an organized and developed domestic private entrepreneurship (including financial institutions and construction companies) • public acceptance and support, and OIC countries, on average, generally fail to achieve most of these preconditions

  21. TRANSPORTATION&ENVIRONMENT (1) GHG emissions by sources in 2005 Source: International Transport Forum, 2010; (EDGAR 4.0 (2009) and IEA)

  22. TRANSPORTATION&ENVIRONMENT (2) Road sector energy consumption per capita and per capita income in 36 OIC countries in 2010

  23. TRANSPORTATION&ENVIRONMENT (3) Passenger Cars and Per Capita Income in COMCEC Countries in 2010

  24. TRANSPORTATION&ENVIRONMENT (4) Road sector energy consumption per capita and pump price for gasoline in COMCEC countries in 2010

  25. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • Agreat diversification among the OIC countries • Needtoabstain from adopting “one size fits all” type of policies and strategies • Considerablepotential for cooperation in the transport industry • Successfactors: (1) adoption of a sound policy framework (2) right cooperative approach (3) institutional capacity and human resources development (4) accumulation of expertise

  26. THANKS… Dr. IsmailCagriOzcan cagri.ozcan@kalkinma.gov.tr

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