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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Current status update and recent evolution of the South American monsoon system, highlighting rainfall patterns and forecasts in various South American regions. Find detailed information at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 November 2011 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over western and southern Brazil, southeastern Colombia, and eastern Peru. Above-average rainfall was observed over southwestern Colombia, northern Peru, central Brazil, central Paraguay, and portions of eastern Argentina. • For 14-20 November, above-average rainfall is predicted for northern-central and portions of southern Brazil, northern Peru and southern Colombia. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, eastern and extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For 21-27 November, above-average rainfall is predicted for southwestern Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay . Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, southern Northeast Brazil, and northeastern Argentina.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over western and southern Brazil, southeastern Colombia, and eastern Peru. Above-average rainfall was observed over southwestern Colombia, northern Peru, central Brazil, central Paraguay, and portions of eastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was mainly observed to the west of 60W (except for portions of Colombia) and south of 15S. Above-average rainfall was found over central and eastern Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon basin. Below-average rainfall has also been observed over the Brazilian Plateau. • 90-day totals are also below average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and above-average SSTs are found in most of the tropical Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During 1-7 November 2011, an anomalous upper tropospheric cyclonic circulation (center at C) was located over Southeast Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was found over coastal areas of Northeast Brazil and west-central South America, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over Southeast Brazil. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 5-11 November 2011, below-average temperatures were observed over eastern Brazil and slightly above-average temperatures were found over northeastern Argentina and portions of southern Brazil. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 14 Nov 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 14 Nov 2011– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (14-20 November), above-average rainfall is predicted for northern-central and portions of southern Brazil, northern Peru and southern Colombia. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, eastern and extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (21-27 November), above-average rainfall is predicted for southwestern Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay . Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, southern Northeast Brazil, and northeastern Argentina.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 31 Oct 2011 Valid 7-13 Nov 2011 Forecast from 7 Nov 2011 Valid 7-13 Nov 2011 Observed 7-13 Nov 2011

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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