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Climate vulnerability & adaptation in the Dutch delta

Climate vulnerability & adaptation in the Dutch delta. 1. The Netherlands. Setting : Small country with a population of 17 million Delta of four river basins 26% is below sea level 60% is susceptible to flooding Flood-sensitive area is densely populated High level of flood protection.

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Climate vulnerability & adaptation in the Dutch delta

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  1. Climate vulnerability & adaptation in the Dutch delta 1

  2. The Netherlands Setting: • Small country with a population of 17 million • Delta of four river basins • 26% is below sea level • 60% is susceptible to flooding • Flood-sensitive areais densely populated • High level of flood protection Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  3. The past… Large plansimplemented as response tofloods • 1916 floods (North) • Structuralsolutionswithdamsandbarriers (Afsluitdijk dam tocreate IJsselmeer) • 1953 flooddisaster (South-West) • First Delta Committee • Structuralsolutionswithdamsandbarriers (Delta Works) • 1993/1995 high water levels (Rivers, large evacuations) • Alsospatialsolutions: Room for the River/MeuseProjects Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  4. Delta under pressure: Challenges for the future More /extreme storms More/intense rainfall Increased river discharge Spatial developments Sealevel rise‏ Increased erosion Decreased river discharge Salt intrusion Subsidence JJelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  5. Climate Change Challenges in the Netherlands Dutch Delta Programme & Delta Act Started in 2010 Objective: A safe and attractive country, also at the end of the century Annual update toparliament 5 D’s Focus Floodprotection Freshwatersupply (Re)development of built-up areas 1. ARK & adaptation Strategy (2007) 2. State Committee Veerman (2008) PBL study on IVA • Started in 2009 • Broad assessment • 2 steps • Impacts & vulnerability • Strategic options Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta 5

  6. The five Dutch D’s • Delta Programme • Delta Act (to ensure continuity) • Delta Commissioner • Delta Fund • Delta Decisions (2014/2015) Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  7. Delta programme now – 2015 Ongoing implementations & programs under DP: • Improve current satefy level • Flood Protection Program / Weak Links in Coast • Organizing safety on the basis of dyke inspections • Room for the River / Meuse Projects • 90 projects along the rivers At the same time looking further ahead: • Preparing Delta Decisions (2015) Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  8. Delta decisions, 2015 Safety standards Urban restructuring Freshwater • 3 national decisions: • Safety standards + program • Urban and spatial restructuring • Freshwater strategy +measures • 2 regional decisions Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  9. PBL report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’ Both impacts & adatation assessment Adaptation: Step towardssolutions:whatcanbedone? Identification of strategic options: Floodprotection Freshwatersupplies & water quality Nature & biodiversity Urban development 10 Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  10. PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’ • Cooperation with: KNMI, Deltares, WUR, Utrecht Uni., Maastricht Uni. • Assessment observed & projected Opportunities & risks • Sectors/chapters: • Climate System • Water: safety & supply & quality • Nature & biodiversity • Agriculture • Health • Tourism

  11. I: Flood protection Risk depends on upstream measures new current 13 Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  12. I: Flood protection • Problem: rising sea level and increasing river discharges • Risk = probability x effect • Option 1 adjustments to built-up areas (long-term proces) • Option 2 application of ‘Delta dykes’ (= unbreachable) Present policy PBL advice Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  13. Delta dykes: almost unbreachable Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  14. Advantages of Delta dykes • Strong decrease in casualties (50-80%) • Strong reduction in economic losses • Efforts for adjusting built-up area reduced • Less vulnerable to unexpected extremes caused by climate change Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  15. Disadvantage: Delta dykes more costly Present policy 1500 km Delta dykes Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  16. Summary (i) Impacts • Many changes have been observed. But not everything is changing yet. • Some future changes are more uncertain than others (even sign) • Despite multiple future changes, in general NL is climate robust • Critical issue for the Netherlands is fresh water availability, nature & health Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  17. Summary (ii) Adaptation options & strategies Fundamenal choices needed for more climate-resilient NL Unbreachable dykes Climate-proofing freshwater supplies needs more flexible water system & better use of water in river Rhine. Implementation of climate-proofing measures in urban development requires early integration in planning and decision making and flexibility in financing mechanisms. 21 Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  18. Report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’ www.pbl.nl/en Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  19. II: Freshwater supplies • Problem: in most dry scenario tipping point near 2050 if water demand increases, before 2050 • Challenge: Enough fresh water in dry summers • Balancing water supply demand PBL advice: • Increase flexibility in water systems • Increase efficiency of water use for both national and regional waters Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  20. Option flexibility in water supply: national waters • Even in extremely dry summers, 80% of the available Rhine wateris used to prevent salinisation by the New Waterway • Here, salinisation could be prevented using less fresh water New Waterway 80% of Rhine flow Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  21. Flexibility in water supply: • Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter) • PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water. • 10% of Rhine at New Waterway ≈ 1 meterwater-level fluctuationin IJsselmeer New Waterway: of national importance Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  22. Flexibility in water supply: Better use of Rhine water • Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter) • PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water. New Waterway: of national importance

  23. Flexibility in water demand: • No overview of potential effects of measures per region • Main uses are for agriculture and water-level management • Options to address drought risks without extra water supplies: • Accept drought losses, or insure them • Large-scale water storage in regions: not cost-effective • Adjust crops: choices are dominated by markets, not by water • Adjust regional water management: seems no regret • Studies indicate: • Reduction in water use of 40 – 80% seems possible at low costs,for instance by accepting flexible salinisation standards in extreme dryyears Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  24. IV: Urban areas • Problem: flood risks, increasing water nuisances, heat risks Challenge: A climate-proof development of urban areas PBL advice: • Knowledge, expertise and effective measures are available • Flexibility in urban infrastructure is limited • Integration of adaptation measures in new urban development, redevelopment or maintainance programme today is needed to reduce additional costs in the future Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  25. Measures and actors on different scales Potential measures • Use of buildings • Insulation of buildings • Adjust treshold height • Water retention within streets • Street vegetation • … • … • Water retention under streets • Upgrade sewerage system • Create ponds and parcs • Thermal storage systems • … • Green networks • Blue networks COMPLEX network of public and private actors Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  26. Preconditions for seizing opportunities • Integration of climate adaptation early on, in planning and design processes • Clear responsibilities • Integration in decision-making process • More flexibility in financing mechanisms Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

  27. PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’ (iv) Nature & Biodiversity Observed Projected 32 Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012 Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

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