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Integrated Framework for Global Earthquake Resilience

This framework provides a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach to build global earthquake resilience. It aims to implement the best policies and practices for disaster resilience, encompassing the three dynamic continuums of people, communities, and recurring events. By addressing knowledge divides, weak links, and vulnerabilities, this framework promotes innovation, technology, and strategic planning to enhance the state of resilience and ensure successful outcomes in earthquake-prone regions.

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Integrated Framework for Global Earthquake Resilience

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  1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODELPART 20A: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

  2. FRAMEWORK 1A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

  3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

  4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.  

  5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS • PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) • COMMUNITIES • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

  6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA

  7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

  8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

  9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: a continuum OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

  10. LIKE A CHAIN: a continuum HAs WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

  11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

  12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA-STRUCTURE • ETC

  13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

  14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.

  15. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

  16. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

  17. RECURRING FLOODS

  18. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

  19. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

  20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

  21. FRAMEWORK 2A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

  22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

  23. FLOODS • SEVERE WIND STORMS • EARTHQUAKES …ETC • BEST POLICIES • BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE FAILURES IN POLICIES CAUSES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  24. THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

  25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

  26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

  27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

  28. EARTHQUAKES

  29. MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

  30. AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  31. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESSUSE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

  32. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE • M7.1 • 63 DEAD • COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE • $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS

  33. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE) • 10,000 DEAD • 20,000 INJURED • 300,000 HOMELESS • NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION • LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE • POLITICAL CHAOS

  34. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

  35. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)

  36. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)

  37. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)

  38. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)

  39. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)

  40. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)

  41. PROTECTIONUSE FORECASTS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION TO ENACT CODES AND FIX PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMMUNITY

  42. PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE) • SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

  43. PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE) • SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

  44. PROTECTION (BASED ON 1995 KOBE, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE) • SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.

  45. PROTECTION • URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION SITES

  46. PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake) • ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED-IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION

  47. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE) • M7.1 • 63 DEAD • FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS

  48. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE) • SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

  49. SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE) • INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

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