Public Opinion and Political Socialization

1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization AP US Government Ms. Walker

2. Linkage Institutions • A linkage institution provides a link between both the branches of government and more importantly between the government and the people (the electorate). • Examples: Civic Organizations, The Media, Voter Participation, and Political Parties

3. What is Public Opinion? • What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time. • Public Opinion Polls: Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population.

4. Public Opinion • The federal government has often had a large budget deficit, but the people want a balanced budget • Courts have ordered that children be bused in order to balance the schools racially, but the people oppose busing. • Does public opinion matter? • The struggle between the “publics” would protect liberty. Madison.

5. What is Public Opinion? • A collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue or question • Opinion Polling: interviewing a “sample” of citizens to estimate public opinion as a whole (modern tool: 1930’s) • http://sunnylandsclassroom.org/Asset.aspx?id=10

6. What is Public Opinion? • Public opinion is based on one of two theories: • Majoritarian Model of Democracy: Government by the people is interpreted a government by the majority of the people • Pluralist Model of Democracy: Government by the people is taken to mea government by people operating through competing interest groups.

7. What is Public Opinion? • Majoritarian and Pluralist models differ greatly in their assumptions about the role of public opinion in government. • Majoritarian Model: government should do what the majority wants

8. Plurality Model • Plurality Model: The public as a whole seldom demonstrates clear, consistent opinions on the day to day issues of government. Sub-groups often express opinions- Government institutions should allow the free expression of opinions by minority publics. • Democracy is at work when the opinions of many different publics clash openly and fairly over govt. policy.

9. The Distribution of Public Opinion • http://www.gallup.com/tag/Healthcare.aspx • http://www.gallup.com/poll/123989/Americans-Healthcare-Reform-Five-Key-Realities.aspx

10. The Distribution of Public Opinion • Three Types of Distribution: • Skewed- one response is larger • Bimodel- even • Normal- Bell curve

11. The Gallup Poll • George Gallup (1901-1983) • Polls have played a key role in defining issues of concern to the public. • http://www.gallup.com/corporate/21364/george-gallup-19011984.aspx

12. Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion • Federalist Papers: First Attempt • Common Sense/The Crisis • Educated middle class emerges mid 1800s becomes more vocal about issues • Uncle Toms Cabin • WWI: Wilson and the Committee on Public Information • Can the government manipulate public opinion?

13. Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion • Public Opinion Polling: 1930s • Scientific Methodology • Survey Data • Straw Polls- unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies • Today: Sophisticated techniques measure public opinion- products and politics (Internet)

14. How Public Opinion is Measured • Election Results • http://www.270towin.com/ • http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/demographic_map/ • Number of phone calls, faxes or e-mails on a particular issue • Public Opinion Survey

15. Public Opinion Survey • Tend to be accurate • Can be deceiving: Slight differences in question wording or question placement wording will affect responses • http://www.pollingreport.com/ • http://ciser.cornell.edu/info/polls.shtml • http://www.csr.vt.edu/ • http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm

16. Traditional Public Opinion Polls • Determining the content and phrasing of the questions • Selecting the sample: Random Sampling/ Stratified Sampling (4 regions-sample taken from randomly selected areas that are in proportion to the population) • Contacting Respondents • http://brain.gallup.com/home.aspx

17. Political Polls • Push Polls: Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against the candidate • Tracking Polls: Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support • Exit Polls: Conducted at selected polling places on Election Day • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbqxP8kAfLM • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71q2ta0RyfI

18. Shortcomings of Polling • Sampling Error or margin of error: A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll- fail to measure certain populations • Limited Respondent Options • Lack of Information on a topic or person • Intensity on an issue is difficult to gauge

19. Cleavages in Public Opinion • Social cleavages: a concept used in sociology and political science to explore how society is divided into groups. • The way in which political opinions are formed helps explain the cleavages that exist among these diverse opinions and why these cleavages do not follow any single political principle but instead overlap and crosscut. • So, how do people form opinions? What influences people’s opinions?

20. Political Socialization: Social Groups • Family: Most important source of political socialization: party identification • Religion: Influences the political beliefs and behaviors of its adherents (67% of Americans go to church) • Race and Ethnicity • http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1209/racial-ethnicvoters-presidential-election • http://people-press.org/report/542/muslims-widely-seen-as-facing-discrimination • http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/700/black-public-opinion

22. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20240375

23. Gender, Age and Region • Women: positive on social issues; negative on war and military intervention- until 9/11 • Gender gap- women tend to vote Democratic- “equal opportunity for women” • Age: Senior Citizens – potent political force • Married v Unmarried- single Democratic, married Republican • Region: Colonial times: varying interests have remained. North v. South: North: large immigration pop. Large Urban centers. South: more religious, rural, more power to the states, behind on civil rights issues. West: Except for Urban areas, tend to be conservative. • Education: more education: conservative except if a person stays in college: Liberal • Social Class:

24. The Impact of Events • Memories often define generations, and the memories of key events often affect how individuals perceive other political events. • 9/11 • JFK Assassination • Neil Armstrong and walking on the moon • Attack on Pearl Harbor • Nixon Resignation

25. Political Ideology and Public Opinion About Government • Political Ideology: The coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups and individuals • Liberalism: places emphasis on individual political and economic freedom; maximize freedom for all people and citizens have the right to disagree with state decisions and act to change the decisions of their leaders. • Communism: values equality over freedom • Socialism: shares the value of equality with communism but is also influenced by the liberal value of freedom • Fascism: rejects the value of equality and accepts the idea that people and groups exist in degrees of inferiority and superiority • Religions: often serves as a basis for interest groups and voluntary associations within civil society- Secular and Non-secular states • Conservatism: support smaller, less activist government and have strong social views • Most Americans are moderate

26. Ideological Types in the United States Equality The modern Dilemma Freedom Freedom Order The Original Dilemma

27. The Political Spectrum

28. Why We Form Political Opinions • Personal Beliefs: Most people tend to agree with policies that benefit themselves- Why many have no opinion on foreign policy • Political Knowledge: Increases as political participation increases- most Americans have a low level of political knowledge and history which allows for a quick shift in public opinion • Cues from Leaders: Presidents help form public opinion

29. Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial Cleavages • Religion, ethnic groups, race, social, and economic classifications all interact with the political system and have tremendous impact on policymaking. These divisions are called Social Cleavages.

30. Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial Cleavages • Bases of social cleavages: What mix of social classes, ethnic and racial groups, religions, and languages does a country have? How deep are these cleavages, and do what degree do they separate people from one another? (form social boundaries) Which of these cleavages appear to have the most significant impact on the political system? • Cleavages and political Institutions: How are cleavages expressed in the political system? For example, is political party membership based on cleavages? Do political elites usually come from one group or another? Do these cleavages block some group from fully participating in government?

31. Citizens, Society, and the StateSocial Cleavages • Social Class • Ethnic Cleavages • Religious Cleavages • Regional Cleavages • Coinciding and Cross-Cutting Cleavages: When every dispute aligns against each other, coinciding cleavages are likely to be explosive. Cross- cutting cleavages divide society into many potential groups that may conflict on one issue but cooperate on another.

32. Citizens, Society, and the StatePolitical Efficacy= Civil Society • A citizen’s capacity to understand and influence political events. • If citizens have a high level of political efficacy, they believe the government takes their input seriously and cares about what they have to say. They also believe in their won abilities to understand political issues and to participate in solving problems. If they lack political efficacy, they may not believe it is important to vote, or they may try to ignore the government’s efforts to enforce laws.

33. Any Questions?