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Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan

Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo- Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009, New Delhi, India Study site 1: Gujrat Projected Changes in Average Temperature of

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Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan

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  1. Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009, New Delhi, India

  2. Study site 1: Gujrat

  3. Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan (Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario) 6 northern pp pakistan southern pp pakistan Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan 5 4 3 Temperature Change (°C) 2 1 0 1990s 2020s 2050s 2080s 3 Period

  4. Projected Changes in Average Precipitation of Northern and Southern Pakistan (Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario 20 northern pp pakistan southern pp pakistan Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan 15 10 Precipitation Change (%) 5 0 -5 -10 1990 2020 2050 2080 4 Period

  5. Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (As reported in recent studies) IPCC TAR (2001):Increased glacier melt in the Himalayas may cause serious floods in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. World Bank (2006):Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years. IPCC AR4 (2007):Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

  6. Availability from Production

  7. Availability from Distribution

  8. Availability from Exchange

  9. Access: Affordability

  10. Access: Allocation

  11. ACCESS: PREFERENCE

  12. Utilization: Nutritional Value

  13. Utilization: Food Safety

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