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Toward A Framework for Implementing Systems Engineering Development for Complex Systems Karl L. Brunson, GWU Thomas A. Mazzuchi, D.Sc., GWU Shahram Sarhani , Ph.D., GWU Jeffrey Beach, D.Sc., GWU. Outline. What is the purpose Development of ICM Framework Life-cycle Risks

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  1. Toward A Framework for Implementing Systems Engineering Development for Complex SystemsKarl L. Brunson, GWUThomas A. Mazzuchi, D.Sc., GWUShahram Sarhani, Ph.D., GWUJeffrey Beach, D.Sc., GWU

  2. Outline • What is the purpose • Development of ICM Framework • Life-cycle Risks • Acquisition Life-cycle • Complex System Work Breakdown Structure • Framework Schedule Development • Risk Assessment of Complex System

  3. What is the Purpose? • Provide a Comprehensive and Flexible Systems Engineering Development Framework for Complex Systems • Builds on the strengths and principles of proven process models such as1: • Waterfall, V • Iterative • Spiral Development • Agile • Rapid Unified Process • Applies key principles that are used throughout an acquisition life-cycle1: • Performs risk driven process tailoring throughout life-cycle phases • Incremental Commitment Model • Boehm, Barry and Lane, Jo Ann, Using the Incremental Commitment Model to Integrate System Acquisition, Systems Engineering and Software Engineering, USC, CSSE

  4. Goal to achieve with the Framework Complex System

  5. Schedule and Cost Risks

  6. Life-Cycle Phases and Activities Verification & Validation Loop Preliminary & Detail Design Loop Requirement Loop Concept Design Loop

  7. Define Work Breakdown Structure of Complex System

  8. ID Name Duration 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 10/4 1 Start Milestone 0 d 2 Payload 125 d 10/3 11/22 3 Design Component A 50 d 11/23 2/5 4 Develop Component A 75 d 5 Bus 125 d 10/3 11/23 6 Design Component B 50 d 11/28 2/5 7 Develop Component B 70 d 2/5 8 Finish Milestone 0 d Develop Baseline Schedule for Complex System

  9. Develop Schedule for each Framework

  10. Risk ID Risk Driver Task ID 001 Design issues 002 Resource Availability 003 Resource Complexity 004 Requirement Creep 005 Late Deliveries 006 Duration Underestimation 007 Task Definition Changes 008 Budget Changes Map Risk Drivers to Schedule Tasks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • Risk drivers can be mapped to more than one task • Risk assessments will be translated with triangular • probability distributions for consequence/impact • and with binomial distributions for the likelihood

  11. Risk ID Risk Driver Task ID 001 Design issues 002 Resource Availability 003 Resource Complexity 004 Requirement Creep 005 Late Deliveries 006 Duration Underestimation 007 Task Definition Changes 008 Budget Changes Model Schedule Behavior with Risk Drivers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • Run Monte Carlo Simulations for each framework • Outputs produce probability density distributions and • binomial distributions that associates risk drivers to tasks • via likelihood and consequence • Indentifies critical path of each framework • Quantifies the impacts and consequence of risk drivers • Risk dependencies modeled via correlation

  12. Risk Assessment of Complex System • Cumulative distributions for schedule and costs • Impact of risks on specific tasks • Probabilistic critical paths for each framework identify tasks/activities that will most likely delay project • Depends on risk • Monte Carlo shows whether task was critical per iteration • Correlation between tasks when risk driver affects durations • Task durations can be negatively or positively correlated • Framework selection based upon results of schedule and cost risk analysis of probability distributions • Reveals optimal paths to risk reduction

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