Update on the JAA Safety Strategy Initiative Presented by Klaus Koplin, JAA Chief Executive

1. Update on the JAA Safety Strategy InitiativePresented byKlaus Koplin, JAA Chief Executive

2. Contents of the Presentation: • Purpose of the presentation. • PART I: • The JSSI framework. • PART II: • JSSI activities: State of Play • PART III: • Conclusion and Perspectives. • PART IV: • Annexes

3. Purpose of the presentation • Provide a general update on JSSI activities

4. Presentation: PART I • The JSSI Framework

5. JSSI: Framework • Aim for safety • Focused safety agenda with deliverables • Partnership; cooperation; communications • Two complementary structured approaches: • An Historic one and a Predictive one • Implementation is key for success

6. JSSI Framework:JAA Aim For Safety Under JAA overall objectives: The JAA aim at continuous improvements of its effective safety system leading to further reductions of the annual number of accidents and the annual number of fatalities irrespective of the growth of the air traffic

7. JSSI Framework:The Purpose of JSSI • Support the JAA’s aim for Safety by providing a focused Safety Agenda (Regulations, Research, training aids...) • Concentrate for the time being on Large Transport Aeroplanes Operated in Commercial Air Transportation

8. JSSI Framework:The Two Approaches • Two complementary approaches are being used to develop the JSSI focused agenda: • The Historic Approach (Broadly based on CAST approach) • The “predictive approach” (The Future Aviation Safety Team)

9. JSSI Framework:Historic Approach • Identify focus of areas • Prioritise focus of areas: fatalities • Analyse representative accidents sample set to recommend interventions. • For CFIT/ALA and LOC, the APT was set-up to adapt to the European Environment the Safety Enhancement prepared by CAST.

10. Historic Approach • Controlled flight into terrain* • Approach and landing* • Loss of control* • Design related • Weather* • Occupant safety and Survivability • Runways safety* *: means common with CAST

11. Predictive Approach • Why a predictive approach? • Future may not be a direct extrapolation of the past: Changes may modify assumptions and introduce new risks • Many accidents are related to situations not envisaged by the assumptions made when designing • Focused Methodology: • Changes Hazards Interventions. • Hazards both inherent and resulting from interactions

12. JSSI Framework:3 Keys Elements • Partnership: Authorities and Interested Parties. • Cooperation: with other organisations • Public Perception: its importance

13. Presentation: Part II • JSSI: State of Play

14. Update on CFIT/ALAR • Review of existing action plans: completed • Some progress but slower than expected • Corrective Actions identified • Revised package: ”Aggregated Action Plans”: See attachment • Reviewed by Operations Sectorial Team (OST): May 13 • Relevant OST Working Groups tasked to review aggregated action plans • Next review by OST: October 2003 • Approval by the JAA Committee: November 2003?

15. State of Play: LOC Loss of Control: • Advance Maneuver; Human Factors andAutomation;SOP; Operational procedures Action Plans to be agreed with Operations Sectorial Team before adoption by the JAAC • Risk management AP’s on hold

16. State of Play: LOC Loss of Control: Design issues • Flight envelope protection; Auto-flight; Icing; Displays and Alerting systems; Vertical situationdisplays Action Plans should be adopted by the JAAC at its September meeting. • Auto-flight; Icing; Displays and Alerting systems rely on harmonization work: • JAA NPA on Icing will be submitted very to JAAC for adoption • JAA NPA on auto-flight should be circulated for comments very soon.

17. State of Play: Design Related Final report delivered on January 17 and it includes: • One Terms of Reference for Harmonisation : • Tire/wheel burst • One proposal to further investigate • Certification/ Maintenance Interface • One proposal to further investigate the concept of “Deep Treatment of Anomalies/Precursors”* * Follow-up within the ODAS group

18. State of Play: Weather • CAST Team should have started December 2002 but was put on hold pending another Team examine areas of risks not covered yet. • Following this investigation, a Team started March 2003 but under the name Risk Reduction team. • JSSI will try to join the team

19. State of Play:Occupant safety and Survivability Final report should include: • one recommendation on Unruly passenger • one recommendation on improving the quality of Cargohandling • 4 detailed recommendations on Crew training/Crew drills; Cabin Crew/Passenger communication; Effectiveness of seatbelts; Seat/floor attachment • One TOR for Harmonisation: Holistic approach to evacuation • 3 Research proposals : On Board load and balance System; Smoking in toilets; framework for data exchange

20. State of Play:Occupant Safety and Survivability • The activity was presented at the OST February 2002 meeting. • The detailed recommendations were presented to the OST September 2002 meeting. • Final OST agreement/comments are expected by October 2003.

21. State of Play: ODAS • ODAS: Occurrence Data Analysis Specifications • Objective: Data users specifications document for ECC-AIRS • Scope: Functional level • Work programme: 6 tasks including initial specifications definition (e.g. Precursors; Indicators) • composition: Authorities and Interested Parties. FAA and Boeing represented • Status: active; final report November 2003.

22. State of Play: Runway Safety • Runway safety: • A European Action Plan for the Prevention of Runways incursions is at the stage of advanced draft: • Main Body: Actions grouped by Topics • 9 appendices; guidance for actions • Should be available very soon • JAA will provide further inputs on Pilot and Operators matters by Procedures by October 2003

23. Update:Future Aviation Safety Team • Phase I: Methodology + 150 changes affecting the Aviation System identified, Oct 99 - Sept 00 • Phase II: Top 20 changes identified using AHP process, Sept 00 - Jul 01 • Top 2: Flight Deck Automation (FDA) New concepts for Airspace Management • Phase III: Focused Analysis of FDA, Oct 01-Jan 03 • Outputs: Safety considerations for FDA, Validity of FAST

24. Summary on FAST • We have struggled, but we have achieved: • Vision for FAST: Forecasting; Systemic (Interactions) • Methodology: we have tested it. Lessons learned • Top 20 Areas of Change • Top hazards for Flight Deck Automation (FDA) • Challenge: • Development of proposals for future work related to FDA that are justified; meaningful and respectful. • We want to promote the concept of forward looking! • Report on phase III: • Was presented to the JSSI at its May 2003 meeting. • Initial discussion at the July 2003 meeting

25. FAST phase III reporting • Table of contents • Executive summary • Background • Administrative • Present FAST methodology • Findings • Future work • Appendices [14]

26. Definitions of categories of areas of change Matrix of 157 Areas of change Methodology List of top -23 Automation items Result of the analysis of the 6 topics SHEL results Review of existing work Professional pilot survey Vision of automation Comparison of FAST main hazards & CAST problem statements Proposals for future work template Proposals for future work List of potential participants for analysis of ANS-1 Accidents/incidents pre-cursors: definition, detection and use of mitigation of safety risk 14 Appendices

27. Template for Future Work Proposals • Template consists of: • Perspective • Discussion (May include amplified Hazards statements) • Technology Watch Items • Proposals for future work organised per actors.

28. 4 Themes • Theme I • Air Ground Space System • Theme II • Crew automation issues • Theme III • General Threats • Theme IV • Absence of human agent

29. Presentation: Part III • Conclusion and Perspectives

30. JSSI: Conclusion • Prioritisation of JSSI Outputs: • Resources are scarce: Facing delays • Structured activity to define focused safety agenda. • Full co-ordination with : • US activities; EUROCONTROL; ICAO and FSF. • Included in JAA Business Plan. • Developing future work program • Your co-operation is needed and welcome

31. JSSI: Perspectives • Such tool should be needed by EASA • Promote its transfer by including the JSSI output in the Inventory • Lessons-learned • Better involvement of the system, in particular Sectorial Teams • Future work programme • Agreed at the level of the JSSI Steering Group

32. Presentation Part IV • Annexes

33. JSSI: Abbreviations • CAST: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (US) • FSF: Flight Safety Foundation. • ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organisation • AHP: Analytical Hierarchy Process • CPS: Commercial Airplane Certification Study • AOC: Area of Change • CRM: Crew Resources Management • GASR: Group of Airport Safety Regulators

34. JSSI: Abbreviations • NPA: Notice of Proposed Amendment. • JAAC: JAA Committee • FMS: Flight Management System • ATC: Air Traffic Control • CNS/ATM: Communications;Navigation; Surveillance/ Air Traffic Management. • TOR: Terms of Reference • ATCO: Air Traffic Controller

35. JSSI: Abbreviations • ALA: Approach and Landing. • LOC: Loss of Control. • APT: Action Plans Team

36. CFIT aggregated Action Plans • Terrain Awareness and warning Systems • Precision-like/Constant Descent Approach Procedures • Flight crew training in CFIT Prevention • Crew resources management training to incorporate CFIT Awareness and Prevention • Encourage use of SOP • Requirement for flight data monitoring

37. ALA aggregated Action Plans • Flight Crew training • Flight Deck Equipment Upgrade/Installation • Aircraft Design • ALAR safety culture

38. State of play: Runway Safety Areas for recommendations • AWARENESS: Initiation of a comprehensive and recurrent programme on Runway Safety • DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSIS: Improvement of reporting & investigation process for runway safety issues • COMMUNICATIONS: RT phraseology & Language proficiency • PROCEDURES: ATC, Pilots and Drivers Procedures • VISUAL AIDS, SIGNS & MARKINGS: ICAO Annex 14 • SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: Assessment of feasibility & needs • MAP & CHARTS: Correctness & Adequacy Review

39. Pro-Active Management of Aviation Risk - Past, Present, Future FORENSIC FEEDBACK LOOP DIAGNOSTIC FEEDBACK LOOP Prediction & Refined Causal Analyses PROGNOSTIC “FUTURES” FEEDBACK LOOP SECURITY ALERT Scenario-Specific Fast-Time Simulations Strategic Use Predict domains & severity Determine contributing factors & severity Evaluate frequency & severity Tactical Use Future Hazard Analysis Forensic & Causal Analysis Statistical & Causal Analysis Identify Trends Identify Events Identify Patterns Convert to Information Convert to Information Convert to Information Codify, classify, & merge Gather, codify, classify, & merge Monitor, codify, classify, & merge Heterogeneous ACCIDENT DATA FUTURE CHANGES Heterogeneous INCIDENT & OPERATIONAL DATA INTERVENTION - Design - Operations - Investment

40. Top 6 Areas of Change

41. Four Major Safety Theme Areas 1. Introduction of new air, ground, and satellite-based automated systems 2. Increased heterogeneity of: aircraft types & flight capabilities, equipage & software, airspace utilization approaches, and development directions & timelines for airborne, ground, and space-based aviation support systems 3. Increase in absolute numbers of aviation operations and corresponding reduction in safety margins as a result of: increased demand, decreased separation and more frequent operation in or near adverse weather conditions 4. Ensuring adequate maintenance of air- and ground-based systems in an environment of increased outsourcing of work, increased complexity of hardware, firmware & software, and a shortage of qualified maintenance personnel