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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 January 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 January 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Drier-than-average conditions are predicted over the core monsoon region during the next two weeks. • During the last 7 days (6-12 January 2014), • For 13-19 January 2014,

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of Brazil north of 20S. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over southern Venezuela, southeastern Colombia, northern Brazil, and northeastern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed over Bolivia, portions of Central Brazil and southern sections of Northeast Brazil.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon Basin, and the Brazilian Plateau. • Recent heavy rains have helped to alleviate long term deficits over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Plot Not Available SSTs are above average in the western equatorial Pacific and near average in most of the equatorial Pacific between 180W and the South American coast . SSTs are slightly below average in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 28 December 2013-3 January 2014, anomalous anticyclonic circulation (red A) was observed over the western Atlantic near the coast of southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion was found over southern Brazil, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and Uruguay, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over eastern Brazil and most of the Amazon Basin, consistent with the pattern of anomalous rainfall shown in slide 4. A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period 28 December 2013-3 January 2014, temperatures were above average in southern and southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina, and below average in southern sections of Chile and Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 13 Jan 2014– Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 13 Jan 2014– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (6-12 Jan 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Peru, western Brazil, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (13-19 Jan 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southeastern Brazil, the eastern Amazon Basin and southern portions of Colombia and Venezuela. Above-average precipitation is predicted for Peru, northern Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 30 Dec 2013 Valid for 6-12 Jan 2014 Forecast from 6 Jan 2014 Valid for 6-12 Jan 2014 Observed 6-12 Jan 2014

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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