East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration

1. East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005

2. Chairman’s welcome and introduction Mervyn Rolfe CBE Chief Executive Dundee & Tayside Chamber of Commerce Chairman ESEP

3. Programme 10.30 Commuting and migration patterns in the East of Scotland John Lord, Director, yellow book ltd. 11.15 Commentary Greg Lloyd, Director of The Geddes Institute, University of Dundee 11.30 Group discussions (tea/coffee) 12.15 Feedback and plenary discussion 13.00 Lunch 14.00 Close

4. Commuting and migration • economic geography of the Programme area • review of Census 2001 data • migration to/from the East of Scotland • growth in commuting to and from major cities • commuting patterns described and analysed • area profiles posted on the website • plus a full version of this presentation • …and a short report

5. Economic geography • jobs density • employment change • knowledge economy • residents’ qualifications • claimant count

6. Job density, 2002

7. Employment change 1998-2002

8. Tradable services and KBIs: % of total employment 2002

9. Tradable services & knowledge based industries: employment change 1998-2002

10. Residents’ qualifications

11. Claimant count rate (%)

12. Migration • net migration 2000-2001 • working age migration 2000-2001 • in-migration from rest of UK • residents born outside Scotland

13. Net migration 2000-2001(to/from UK)

14. Net migration working-age 2000-2001 (to/from UK)

15. % of in-migration from rest of UK

16. % of residents born outside Scotland

17. Commuting • commuting trends 1991-2001 • commuting flows • cities and commuting • who commutes? • occupation • Industry • status • personal characteristics

18. Increase in commuting 1991-2001

19. Commuting flows 2001 • the programme area • net flows by local authority • in-commuting and out-commuting • offshore employment

20. East of Scotland 2001

21. Net commuting flows

22. % of residents who work locally

23. % of workforce who live locally

24. % of workforce who are in-commuters

25. % of residents who out-commute to work

26. Residents working offshore

27. City travel to work areas • Aberdeen • Dundee • Edinburgh • Stirling

28. % of residents working in Aberdeen

29. % of residents working in Dundee

30. % of residents working in Edinburgh

31. % of residents working in Stirling

32. Who are the commuters? • occupation • industry • status • circumstances

33. Residents’ out-commuting by occupation Higher professional Routine occupations

34. Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work Agriculture Manufacturing/mining

35. Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work (2) Wholesale, retail Financial intermediation

36. Workforce: dependency on in-commuters Public administration and defence Real estate and business activities

37. Workforce: dependency on in-commuters (2) Financial services Hotels and restaurants

38. Commuters are more likely to be • in high wage, high skill occupations • working in knowledge based sectors • residents of areas close to big cities • in a full time job • employees • male • car owners

39. Defining roles/assessing performance

40. Performance criteria • migration trends • working age population • commuter flows • jobs density • unemployment rate • resident/workplace earnings

41. Earnings ratios Residents : Scottish average Workplace : residents

42. East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005

43. Commuting, Migration and City Regions: A Commentary East of Scotland European Partnership Greg Lloyd The Geddes Institute

44. Globalisation and global city regions • globalisation is the principal driver of change • cities and city regions are the emerging centres of economic competitiveness and innovation • this creates agendas around urban development and governance. • defined contexts – markets, growth, limited regulation

45. Connectivity?

46. European spatiality • spatial planning – the new agenda for planning and management of regional development • context of the global economy, competitiveness and scale • normative assertions around city regions – mono-centric and poly-centric forms • European Spatial Development Perspective • enhancing competitiveness • regional balance • urban-rural relations

47. Refreshing those bits……city regions? • Partnership Agreement • Framework for Economic Development • Smart Successful Scotland • National Planning Framework • city regions

48. But where? • Mono-centric approaches • Derek Halden Consultancy, 2002 • Experían, 2004 • David Begg and Ian Docherty,2002 • Polycentric urban region • Nick Bailey and Ivan Turok, 2001 • Edward Glaeser, 2004 • Research evidence

49. ......and how? • context – economic performance and scale • urban morphology and place competition • institutions and resources • regulation and history • identities and cultures

50. Clash of Ideas? • old geography to new space • functional, formal …. or fuzzy edges? • boundaries or borderless? • single government to multiple governance • fixed identities or fluid imagery?