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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP provides a summary of the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes rainfall patterns, temperature anomalies, and model forecasts for the next two weeks.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January 2010 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below average rainfall was observed over the monsoon core region (central Brazil), while much above-average rainfall was observed over the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil. • The GFS forecasts above-average rainfall over the states of Parana and Sao Paulo in Brazil for the next 7 days, while below-average rainfall is predicted over most of northeastern South America during the next two weeks.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days below-average rainfall was observed over a large area in Brazil, from the northeastern Amazon basin southward into southeastern Brazil (left-panel, red box), while much above average rainfall was observed over portions of southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul) and northern Uruguay.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days above-average rainfall was observed over southeastern South America (left panel, blue oval), while below average rainfall was observed over many areas from Colombia southeastward to southeastern Brazil (red box).

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau NCA CB SA SB • 90-day rainfall totals are near-average over the southern Amazon basin (SA) and central Brazil (CB), and below-average over the north-central Amazon basin (NCA) (deficits of about 120 mm) • 90-day rainfall totals in southern Brazil (SB) are about 220 mm above-average.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies During the last week, equatorial SSTs were at least 1°C above-average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and greater than 2°C above average in portions of the central and eastern Pacific. SSTs were slightly above-average in the equatorial Atlantic. A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • During 2-8 Jan 2010, anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation dominated southeastern South America with the center of anomalous circulation located near the coast of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil. • Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) and above-average rainfall (see slide 4) were observed over southern Brazil and northern Uruguay (red rectangle in bottom right panel) on the west flank of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation center. A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period (2-8 Jan 2010) above-average temperatures were observed over portions of southern and southeastern Brazil, the eastern coast of Argentina and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 10 January 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 10 January 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (10-16 Jan 2010), below-average rainfall is predicted over eastern Brazil (0-22S;38W-52W), western Colombia, northern Ecuador, the western Amazon basin and portions of northern Argentina. Above-average rainfall is predicted over portions of southern and southeastern Brazil (Parana and Sao Paulo) and throughout the central-southern Amazon basin. • For Days 8-14 (17-23 Jan 2010), above-average rainfall is predicted from Peru eastward to central Amazon basin (0-15S;56W-80W) and over southeastern South America, while below-average rainfall is predicted over northeastern South America (0-20S; 38W-56W). NOTE: See forecast verification in the next slide.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 27 Dec 2009 Valid 3-9 Jan 2009 Forecast from 3 Dec 2009 Valid 3-9 Jan 2009 Observed 3-9 Jan 2010 NOT AVAILABLE

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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