Multinational Planning Augmentation Team

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Course of Action Analysis

Purpose • Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process • Discuss the associated task steps • Identify the products resulting from COA analysis • Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations

References • JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995 • JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 • JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993 • CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97

Crisis Action Planning Process C R I S I S III Course of Action Development OPORD & Deployment Data Base IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning II Crisis Assessment I Situation Development VI Execution And/or Alert Order Execute Order Planning Order Warning Order I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action V Commander’s Decision Commander’s Estimate Process

Courses of Action Analysis • The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposedfriendlyCOA as though executed against the most probable and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation (environment or belligerent action). This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation.

Analysis of Opposing COAs • Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the success of each friendly COA • Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion • By time phasing • Geographic location • Functional event • Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont) • Consider crisis termination issues; think through own action, consequences of our action, counteraction • Conclude with: • Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility • Determine additional requirements • Make modifications • List advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Task Steps Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Gather the Tools • Friendly COAs • The most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation and / or belligerent COAs • Combined operations area depiction • Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats • Representation of environmental/civil conditions • Synchronization Matrix • Action-Consequence-Counteraction matrix • Identify and review existing limitations

List Assumptions • List the assumptions made during mission analysis • Validity: • Is the assumption necessary? • Will the result change without the assumption? • Logical, realistic, stated positively

List Known Critical Events and Decision Points • Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis • Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timelyexecution and synchronization • Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list

Select Method of Analysis • Computer Assisted • Integrated theater management model • Tactical warfare model • Joint conflict model • Manual • Deliberate timeline analysis • Operational phasing • Critical events

Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis • Techniques • Narrative technique • Sketch and note technique • Analysis matrix • Considerations • Assets available • Time available

Wargame the Operation and Assess Results • Visualize the flow of operations • Assess the CTF performance two echelons down • “Action-Consequence-Counteraction”

Synchronization Matrix TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT PROBABLE THREAT DECISION POINTS CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER OPN FIREPOWER OPN PROTECTION OPN INFORMATION OPN INTEL OPN SUPPORT ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC JSOTF OTHERS D-DAY/ H-HOUR D + 1 D + 2 FUNCTION JOINT AREAS COMPONENTS

Simplified Sync Matrix EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENT ACTOR COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT CTF CARFOR CNAVFOR CAFFOR CMARFOR CSOTF CPOTF

Sample Analysis Worksheet CRITICAL EVENT: SEQ- UENCE NUMBER ACTION CONSE- QUENCES COUNTER- ACTION ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT CCIR REMARKS

Action/Reaction/Counteraction ACTION CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION 1ST Priority is Provide Medical Support Large Population W/O Shelter increases sickness Modify TPFDD to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care.

Advantages & Disadvantages COA 1 Advantages Disadvantages Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Operations Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up in outlying areas

Advantages & Disadvantages COA 1 Advantages Disadvantages Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Ops Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport 2. Branch: CARFOR uses helos to transport 3. CSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up outlying areas

Results of Analysis • Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA • Identification of additional assets required (if any) • Refinements or modifications to the COA • Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each • geographic location or functional event • Adjustments to any established control measures

Analysis Results (cont) • Deployment requirements • Synchronization requirements • Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole • Required support from outside of the CTF • Requirements for logistic support • Clear picture of command relationships • branches and sequels

Analysis Results (cont) • Critical information required to support decision points • Additional commander’s decision points • Measures of effectiveness for each phase • Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance • Identification of component tasks • Task Organization requirements

Conduct Risk Assessment • Identify risks • Assess risks • Analyze acceptability of risk • Identify ways and means of risk mitigation

Revalidate • Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? • Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? • Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)?

Lessons Learned • Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. • Analyze the end state and transition. • Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged down. First cut thoughts only. • The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. • During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

QUESTIONS?

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team