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Regional Business Review

Regional Business Review. 3 rd Annual Business Dinner James Hardie Dining Room Charles Sturt University Prepared by the Western Research Institute 22 nd March 2004. Outline. Regional Economy National Retail Industry Regional Retail Sector Changes in Central West Retail

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Regional Business Review

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  1. Regional BusinessReview 3rd Annual Business Dinner James Hardie Dining Room Charles Sturt University Prepared by the Western Research Institute 22nd March 2004

  2. Outline • Regional Economy • National Retail Industry • Regional Retail Sector • Changes in Central West Retail • Key drivers and success factors • Retail Outlook • General Economic Outlook

  3. National and Regional Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  4. Sales Performance Source: Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy

  5. Regional Comparison Source: Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy

  6. Sector Comparison Source: December quarter Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy

  7. Significance of Retail Sources: ABS and WRI Input Output Table

  8. Retail Employment Profile • 12% of Australian workforce • 60% female • 50% of all young people with a job work in retail • Two-thirds are casual / part-time • 25% of employment flow-on effects captured by retail Source: Retail Industry Profile prepared by the Australian Retailers Association

  9. Retail Sales Performance Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union

  10. Regional Comparison Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union

  11. Sector Comparison Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union

  12. Retail Shift Share Analysis • Analysed job growth 1996-2001 • Looking for sectors growing above state & industry averages • Outperforming retail sectors: • Specialised food + 23% • Furniture & houseware + 71% • Other Personal & household + 46% Source: Central West Shift-Share Analysis commissioned by the Central Western Regional Development Board

  13. Building Approvals Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  14. Key Industry Drivers • Level of consumer confidence • Rate of household formation • Level & changes in interest rates • Population growth • Economic growth • Household disposable income Source: IBISWorld

  15. Key Success Factors • Good product offering • Loyal customer base • Clear market position • Superior after sales service • Access to latest technologies • Economies of scale • Proximity to key markets Source: IBISWorld

  16. Retail Outlook • Retailer expectations slightly lower for March quarter of 2004 • Long run average sales + 4% • MONASH + 1.8% in 2004-05 • Higher AUD increases demand for imported cars, electronics, etc • Increased competition for market share

  17. Growth Outlook Sources: Business Review Weekly State of the Nation 2004 and WRI Input-Output Table

  18. General Economic Outlook • Business expectations higher for March quarter of 2004 • Rebound in farm production • Slowdown in housing market • Strong domestic economy • AUD forecasts 65.8c to 80c US • Possibly higher interest rates • Low inflation in RBA 2-3% range

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