Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Post Gu 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 17th August 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Central Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • Normal access in Hawd and Addun LHZs; • Partial access in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Agro-pastoral LHZs; • Local authority, enumerator, Key informants with FSNAU /WFP Teleconferencing

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Three Pastoral Livelihoods: Hawd, Addun, • Coastal Deeh • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock and livestock products, bush product and kinship support • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and food aid • Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat • Agropastoral livelihood: Cowpea Agro pastoral - are more livestock rather than crop-reliant. • Income: sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales • Main sources of food: own production (cowpea) and purchases

4. Climate Gu 2011Seasonal Performance • Overall Statement: Normal rains in Coastal Deeh and larger parts of Cowpea belt (pockets in Cowpea belt received below normal rains); below normal rains in Hawd and Addun with pockets receiving average rains. • Start of Season: Gu rains started 2 to 3 weeks late (April 26th). • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Started in April 26th and ended by end of 2nd Dekad of May. Rainfall performance was normal in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt. However, Hawd and Addun received below normal precipitation. • Rains have started 2-3 weeks later than usual and ended about 2 weeks earlier. Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation • Resource-based conflicts in rural settlements of Gelinsor and Adado areas between opposing clans; • High political confrontation among opposing sides over parts in Galgadud region; • Resource-based tensions and livestock rustling among clans over the area centered between Harardere and Hobyo districts; • Marine piracy attacks with successful hijackings of cargo vessels; • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Human death and causalities of active workforce and displacement • High impact and long term restrictions on population movement and pastoral access to key grazing areas Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates Cowpea Production in Gu 2010: Galgadud – 750MT; Mudug – 305MT

8. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Harardere, July, 2011 Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Hobyo, July, 2011

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

10. Markets Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade –Cowpea and Coastal Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Rice) - Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Rice) - Declining Trend

11. Market Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade – Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) -Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Sorghum) - Declining Trend

12. Market Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices - Cowpea and Coastal Regional Trends: Local Quality Goat price - Declining Trend (seasonal)

13. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011 • Normal to near normal rainfall performance in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt and below normal rains in Hawd and Addun LHZs; • Improved rangeland conditions in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt. • Below average rangeland and water conditions in parts of Hawd and Addun. • Normal livestock body conditions for goat and sheep across the livelihoods. • Below normal livestock body conditions for camel and cattle in Coastal, Cowpea and Addun.

14. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

15. Livestock Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and ToT- Hawd and Addun Regional Trend in Rice Prices - Trend increasing Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Rice) - Trend is declining

16. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Average camel. Arfuda Galkacyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11, Water trucking. Dhabad, Abudwak, Jul. ‘11, Average goat body condition browsing. Beer Abdi Farah, Dhusamareb, Galgadud, Jul.’11 Livestock watering. Hadile, Hobyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11,

17. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Increase in Imported Commodity Prices (last six months) • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: • Increased global prices • Declined local cereal supply on the markets due to low production in southern regions • Limited humanitarian food distributions

18. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

19. CENTRAL Nutrition Situation Estimates Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010) • Aggravating factors : • AWD and cholera outbreak in Galgadud and Mudug regions • Insecurity & displacements with limited interventions in Addun, Cowpea Belt & Coastal Deeh • Limited milk availability in Addun, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt LZ • High morbidity and poor health seeking behavior, sub-optimal child feeding, poor access to safe water and health care services across all the livelihoods • IDPS • Poor shelters • High morbidity in Dusamareb IDPs. • Mitigating factors : • Increased access to milk and milk products and stable ToT - after some Gu ‘11 rains in parts of the Hawd • Access to humanitarian assistance (health, nutrition, WASH) in the Hawd and active social support) Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

20. CENTRALSummary:Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPCApril 2011 Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Galgadud 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC; Mudug: 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC Ruralpopulation: Coastal Deeh (100% of population in HE); Cowpea Belt (100% of P- HE; 100% M- AFLC); Addun (50% of the P-HE; 50% of P-AFLC) • Acute Malnutrition: Dhusamareb IDP Very Critical; Coastal Deeh Livelihood Zone deteriorated from Critical toVery Criticalwhile Cowpea sustained Criticallevels with potential to deteriorate • Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping) • Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) • Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse) • Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing • Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011

21. CENTRAL Main Contributing Factors of Rural IPC Situation • Below normal Gu 2011 rains in parts of Hawd and Addun leading to poor pasture and water availability • Poor milk production /availability in most livelihoods due to low calving/kidding • High livestock asset losses in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Beltdue to the successive droughts (2008-2011) • Increases in local (red sorghum) and imported (rice) cereal prices • Crop failure in Cowpea Belt due to the long dry spell, coupled with pests and diseases • Significant decline (57%) in ToT between goat and red sorghum (from 95 kg in June ’10 to 41 kg in Jun ’11) • High indebtedness (> 200 USD) accrued during previous droughts to meet water and food needs • Reduced fishing activities due to piracy along the coastline • Increased pastoral destitution (Coastal Deeh) • Increased inter-clan resource based conflicts (rangelands) • Limited humanitarian space (Harardheere, Eldheer and Elbuur districts) • Increased civil insecurity among opposing groups affecting trade and pastoral mobility

22. CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods

23. CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by District

24. CENTRALUrban Population in Crisis