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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

Post GU 2011. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia. 17 th August 2011. Information for Better Livelihoods. Juba Regions. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations.

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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  1. Post GU 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 17th August 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Juba Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • Food security field analysts had a full access into all livelihoods of both regions

  3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase • Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle (SEP), sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists) • Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases • Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases. • South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38,810 people - 68%), but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18,232 people – 32%). • Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population; 43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales, wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own production and market purchase

  4. Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall • Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3rd Dekad of April, ended early in 2nd Dekad of May with intermittent dry period in both regions. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity, ended early in 2nd of May 2011. • Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but poor frequency and distribution. • Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall. • Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3rd dekade of July 2011

  5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

  6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • Remains highly volatile • Military skirmishes along the Kenya /Somalia border • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Restricted trade movement across the borders from Somalia (Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa. • Limited population movement • Restricted pastoral mobility, particularly in Diif, Tabata, Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in Afmadow district Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

  7. AgricultureGu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions

  8. AgricultureGu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions

  9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba)

  10. Agriculture M.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production

  11. Agriculture L.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production

  12. Agriculture M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011

  13. Agriculture L. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011

  14. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow , Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M.Juba, FSNAU, July 2011

  15. . Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Crop failure. Yontoy, Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011 Failed crop Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011 Empty underground storage Pit.Qed cajuso –Sakow July 2011

  16. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Juba regions receive maize from Kenya via Dhobley and Kismayo port as well as from Ethiopia (Somali Region) through Gedo region.

  17. AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Middle Juba Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Middle Juba • Factors influencing sorghum prices: • Crop failure in riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods • Maize inflow from Kenya and Ethiopia • High demand for cereals Lower Juba Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Lower Juba

  18. Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Middle Juba • Factors influencing labor wage rates in agricultural districts: • Limited agricultural activities following the poor Gu season performance • Low labour demand Lower Juba

  19. AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Middle Juba Regional trends in purchasing power in Middle Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize): 3kg in Jul ‘11 vs 15kg in Jul ‘10 • Factor Affecting ToT decline: • Significant increase in maize prices. • Decrease of daily wage rate Lower Juba Regional trends in purchasing power in Lower Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize): 4kg in Jul ‘11 vs 17kg in Jul ‘10

  20. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, July 2011 • Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions except riverine livelihood • Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of coastal, pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods except river banks • Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. • High in-migrations that caused depletion of pasture

  21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  22. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow, Middle Juba, July 2011. Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Lower Juba, July 2011

  23. LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Middle Juba • Regional Trend in cattle Prices • in Middle Juba (Jilib , Buale) : • Cattle prices are 40% of June 2010 and 161% of January 2011. • Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in • Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo): • Declining trend: 49% compared to same month last year, and 103% of January 2011 Lower Juba Influencing factors: poor body condition, poor demand, high supply, poor condition on marketing route, prolonged drought )

  24. Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions Middle Juba Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize: 107kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 715kg/head in Jul ‘10 Lower Juba Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize: 105kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 358kg/head in Jul ‘10

  25. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months): • Increased taxation on commercial imports • High food and fuel prices on international markets • Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices

  26. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

  27. JUBANutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010) • Aggravating factors • Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep • Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services • High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors • Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities • Poor infant and young child feeding • Mitigating factors • Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel) • Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative impact on the environment • Limited nutrition interventions on going

  28. JUBASummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation • Key IPC Reference Outcomes • Urban Population: • Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC • Lower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC • Rural Population: • L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M – AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC); Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral (100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC) • Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day while lacking entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litresppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litresppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7.5-15 litresppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

  29. JubaMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation • Aggravating Factors: • Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity; • Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral (sorghum): L. Juba (321MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567MT; 6% of PWA); • Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure • Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies; • Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region; • Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat); • Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep & goats); • Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% ); • Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley ,Kulbiyow and Diif of Afmadow district – affecting trade movement • Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market (shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity) • Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases; • Weak purchasing power: ToT of 4kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25kg maize/local goat (72% decline) compared to June 2010; • Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness); • Mitigating Factors: • Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas; • Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize); • Charcoal production despite low prices; • Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC • Social support

  30. JubaRural Population in Crisis by District

  31. JubaRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

  32. JubaUrban Population in Crisis

  33. The End

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