Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Deyr 2010/11 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia January 26, 2011 Bay/Bakool Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations – Bay and Bakool • FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for field observations of crop, livestock and market situation • Food Security information was collected through teleconferencing using enumerators, key informants and focus group. • Nutrition data was obtained through partners and key informants

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Bay Region: • 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral • High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low • Potential) • Primary sources of income of poor: self-employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops. • Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase • Primary livelihood asset of poor: cattle, sheep/goats

4. Main Livelihood GroupsSources of Food and Income • Bakool Region: • 1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral) • Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary food sources of poor: food purchase • Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle • 2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral) • Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self-employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase. • Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production.

5. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall • Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay • and Bakool regions. The rains were extremely poor • in most areas of the two regions • Start of Deyr rainy season: Effectively started in the third decade of October but interrupted by a long dry spell in November; restarted on the third decade of November in localized areas of Bay and some insignificant rainfall was experienced in Bakool region. • Temporal and spatial distribution: Rainfall performance in terms of intensity and duration, distribution and coverage was below normal in both regions. In most areas of the two regions Deyr rains were 20-40% of normal as indicated by the satellite imagery and confirmed by the field staff; pockets of the two regions received 60-80% of normal rainfall. • Dry spell from 1st dekad of November up to the end of 2nd dekad of December with one to two localised showers in the last dekad of December without a significant impact on crop and pasture conditions.

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bay NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

7. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bakool NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

8. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • The overall civil security situation in Bay region was relatively stable, but political confrontations b/w the opposing factions were reported in Bakool. • Two heavy fightings in Sep/Aug. ’10 in the area b/w Rabdhure and Yeed with casualties (death and injury). No human losses or injuries among civilians; limited, temporary displacement occurred from Rabdhure town to Burdhuhunle and Garasweyne; however, the displaced people returned back to their original places after the fighting ceased. • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Restriction of pastoral mobility. • Disruption of cross-border trade. • Restricted movement of goods affecting both rural and urban areas.

9. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region

10. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region

11. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates

12. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Bay Region) Regional Trends in Deyr Cereal Production (Bakool Region)

13. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bay Region) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bakool Region)

14. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos 1 1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Boodaan, Rabdhure, Bakool, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 2. Sorghum Crop Failure with Limited Fodder Harvest Isha, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 3. Sorghum Crop Failure. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 2 3

15. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Map Bay supplies sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo, South, Central and Northeast as well as refugee camps in Kenya. Bakool mainly gets cereal from Bay.

16. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay) • Factors influencing sorghum prices: • Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods • High sorghum demand (Bay) Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool)

17. Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate Baidoa - Bay • Factors Influencing Wage Labour: • High labour out-migration to Shabelle and Juba regions for charcoal production and agricultural activities in Shabelle riverine Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate Hudur - Bakool

18. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Baidoa – Bay (6 kg/ daily wage) • Factor Influencing ToT decline: • Significant increase in sorghum prices. Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Hudur – Bakool (3 kg/daily wage)

19. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Deyr 2010/11 • Water availability is poor to average in all livelihoods of both regions • Poor to average pasture conditions in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool regions • Average to poor body condition for camel and goats. Cattle and sheep body conditions are deteriorating. • Normal to abnormal migration in Bay and abnormal in Bakool region.

20. Livestock Water, Pasture, Livestock Migration, Conditions and Prices in Deyr 2010/11

21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool

22. Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Regional Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa – Bay) • Factors Influencing L.Goat prices: • High supply of livestock into markets • Poor livestock body condition • Low demand for livestock after the end of Hajj period. Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (Hudur – Bakool)

23. Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade - Bakool Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal per Head of Local Goat ( Baidoa - Bay) • Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): • High cereal prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat ( Hudur - Bakool)

24. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos - Bakool Mixed Livestock Body Condition. Average Camel Body Condition. Dhurrey, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ’10 Below Average Goat Body Condition. Geliyo, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition, Ceel Malable, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

25. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Bay_Bakool: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate • Most imported commodity prices are relatively stable in the last six months. • Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: • Relatively stable Somali Shilling • Increased commercial imports after the end of Monsoon season • Removal of road check-points between Mogadishu and Bay/Bakool regions. • Rehabilitation of roads (localized) which improved accessibility.

26. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

27. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

28. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010 Nutrition Situation Estimates, Jan 2011

29. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bakool MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in AFLC, 25% Poor in HE; Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP 100% Poor in AFLC; Bakool Agro-Past 100% Poor in AFLC. Risk Level of Watch for all • Acute malnutrition: greater than usual: Bakool Pastoral – sustained Very Critical, Bakool Agro-pastoral – deteriorated from Serious to Critical • Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day • Water Access: Poor to Average • Destitution/Displacement: Integrated into rural communities • Coping: Sale of livestock products to increase income, increased livestock sales, labour migration to Juba/Shabelle, seeking social support, increased self-employment, change in food consumption habits • Livelihood Assets: Crop production failure, poor rangeland and water conditions. However, livestock reproduction increased due to the previous average to good conceptions, but the high livestock off-take in the coming Jilaal will offset the increase. • Main Contributing Factors: • Poor Deyr ‘10/11 rains: • Deteriorated livestock conditions • Failed crop production and reduced/depleted cereal food stocks in most agro-pastoral areas • Deteriorated pasture and water conditions which led to abnormal migration pattern • Increased local cereal prices in all of Bay and Bakool markets since Nov. 2010 • Deteriorated trend in household income and food access

30. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool

31. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool

32. IPC Estimated urban population in AFLC & HE – Bakool by District

33. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bay MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: All livelihoods in Bay are in BFI phase with risk level of WATCH in post Deyr ’10/11 with the exception of parts of Bay/Bakool agro-pastoral of Baidoa LP(1/4 part) and Burhakaba districts (1/3 part) are High Risk to AFLC (25% of the poor) • Acute malnutrition: Very Critical • Food Access: Below average access and availability of food • Water Access: Access and availability of water is poor to average • Destitution/Displacement: Diffuse • Coping: Mild coping strategies • Livelihood Assets: Crop failure of Deyr ’10/11, high sorghum demand from the neighbouring regions, causing reduction of cereal stock availability. Improved livestock holding levels, but livestock production is below average as a result of poor pasture and water conditions in Deyr ’10/11 • Main Contributing Factors: • Poor rains. • Crop failure. • Poor livestock body condition and production • Decline in household income and food sources

34. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay

35. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay

36. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE – Bay District

37. The End