Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Post Gu 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Information for Better Livelihoods 17th August 2011 Gedo Region Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except pockets in Elwaq and Garbaharey districts, which are the frontline of the two warring parties

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production • Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goat • 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern agropastoral and Gedo-Bay agropastoral high potential) • Southern agro-pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production • Gedo-Bay agropastoral are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases. • Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production.

4. Climate Gu 2011Seasonal Performance Overall statement: The overall performance of the season was erratic and below normal in most parts of the region. • Start of Season: started on time (2nd dekad of April in most southern parts of the region and Luq district in the north. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: 2-3 days of rain were received in most parts of the region with poor intensity and moderate distribution. • Poor Rains: all livelihoods in Gedo have received poor rains between 2nd dekad of April and 3rd dekad of May. • No Rains: Localized areas of Garbaharey and Belethawa districts have received no rains. Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. ClimateVegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • Increased political confrontation and military clashes over the last 6 months • Increased number of military bases and road blocks • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Increased population displacement towards refugees camps in Kenya and Ethiopia • Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo • Asset losses, e.g. burning houses and vehicles. • Limited pastoral mobility and restricted access to pasture and water points. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates

8. AgricultureTrends in Regional Gu Cereal Production Trends Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates

10. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera, July 2011 Nursery stage onion crop. Taaganey, Luuq, July 2011 Complete crop failure. Habadeer, Baardera, July 2011 Harvested palm leaves Surguduud, Dolo, July 2011

11. Agriculture Gu 2011Local Cereal Flow

12. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (S.Gedo - Bardhere) Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (N.Gedo - Luuq)

13. Agriculture Regional Trends in Daily Labour Wages Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere) • Factors Influencing Wage Labour: • South Gedo: High labour in-migration into riverine areas for cash crop activities, resulting in increased competition and reducing wage rates. • North Gedo: wage rates slightly increased in July due to low supply of labour resulting from escalated conflict in Luuq district Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate (Luuq)

14. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Daily labor rate /Sorghum (Bardhere) • Contributing Factors : • In South: decline of labour wage rate and increased sorghum price reducing the ToT. • Northern districts: Slight increase of labour wage rate, hence slight increase in the ToT. Regional Trend in Daily Labor Rate/Sorghum (Luuq)

15. Livestock Rangeland Conditions, Water and Livestock Migration Gu 2011 • Below average rangeland conditions across the region • Average water conditions, except in catchment area of Elwaq and Belethawa. • Poor livestock body condition for cattle and goats and average for camel. • Abnormal migration: Most of the camel migrated to Juba, while cattle migrated to Somali Region of Ethiopia

16. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

17. MarketsLivestock Prices

18. Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Bardhere) Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Luuq)

19. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor camel condition .Garsaal, Ceelwaaq, Gedo, July 2011. Cattle hand fed. Sarinley, Baardera, Gedo, July 2011. Early migration camel to Juba. Irida , Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011. Poor water availability. Haadfuul Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011.

20. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Prices of most of the import commodities increasing (last six months) • Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: • Increasing global prices • Restricted trade movements due to conflicts. • Increased transport costs between Mogadishu and Gedo due to increased taxation, road blocks and fuel prices

21. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

22. GEDONutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010) • Aggravating factors: • Impact of failed Gu 2011 rains affecting crop and livestock production and resulting in limited access to milk and poor diet quality in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones • High morbidity (AWD and suspected measles) and poor health seeking behaviors • Limited access to safe water, sanitation and health facilities • Poor infant and young child feeding practices • Mitigating factors • Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral livelihood zone • Increased charcoal burning for income to buy food (but with long-term negative impact on the environment) • Sale of fodder among the riverine communities generating income for food and non-food items

23. GEDOSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 • Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) • Urban Population: • 75%P in HE; 25%P in AFLC; 25%M in AFLC • Rural Population: • Southern Agropastoral (100% P-HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M- AFLC) • Agropastoral High Potential (50% P- Famine; 50%P - HE; 100% M -HE) • Riverine (100% P – HE; 50% M- HE ;50% M – AFLC) • Southern Inland Pastoral (25% P-HE; 75% P – AFLC) • Dawo Pastoral (25%P - HE; 75%P – AFLC) • Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate • Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping) • Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litresppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litresppp day, accessed via asset stripping) • Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse) • Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing • Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

24. GEDOMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation • Aggravating Factors : • Poor Gu 2011 rainfall performance (40-60% of normal) leading to: • Significantly reduced cereal production (13% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure (riverine maize 13% of PWA, sorghum 0% of PWA) • Absence of cereal stocks due to several consecutive seasons of poor crop production/failure • Poor pasture and water access/availability • Reduced herd size for all species of livestock, particularly cattle, sheep and goats • Decrease of livestock reproduction and low milk production • Low livestock prices mainly due to deteriorated body conditions (June 2011 prices: Camel 72%, cattle 56% and goats 71% of June 2010 levels in Bardera and Luuq markets) • Reduced access to saleable animals • Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade 40% (from 10kg to 4kg daily labor rate to red sorghum) and 24% (from 100kg in June 2010 -24kg of sorghum/goat in June 2011) • Abnormal livestock migration and family splitting (towards Juba and Somali Region of Ethiopia) and reduced milk availability • Civil insecurity (military skirmishes since March in the districts of Beled Hawa, Luuq, Garbaharey and Elwak) resulting in displacements and trade disruption from inland to the border markets; • Mitigating Factors : • Limited agricultural labour opportunities in the riverine (Dolow , Luuq and Bardhere) • High holding of camel although below the baseline levels (77% of BL in SIP) • Cereal supply through cross-border trade with Ethiopia (Dolow) and Kenya (Belet Hawa) • Improved humanitarian interventions • Social support

25. GedoRural Population in Crisis by District

26. GedoRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

27. GedoUrban Population in Crisis

28. The End