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Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia

FEWS NET /Somalia. Post Deyr 2006/07 Analysis & Outlook Situation Briefing for USAID/OFDA March 8, 2007. Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Post Deyr 2006-’07 Assessment Timeline, Process, Methods, Partners Review of Summary Results A. Sector Analysis:

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Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia

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  1. FEWS NET /Somalia Post Deyr 2006/07 Analysis & Outlook Situation Briefing for USAID/OFDA March 8, 2007 Food Security Analysis Unit -Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  2. Post Deyr 2006-’07 Assessment • Timeline, Process, Methods, Partners • Review of Summary Results • A. Sector Analysis: • Climate • Flood • Civil Insecurity • Agriculture • Markets • Livestock • Nutrition • B. Current Food & Livelihood Security Phase Classifications • Spatial Identification – Map • Populations Estimates - Table • Phase Classification, Evidence Based Templates Presentation Outline

  3. Timeline • Planning with Partners: Dec. 5, 2006 • Regional Fieldwork & Analysis: Dec. 13, 2006 – Jan. 10, 2007 • All Team Analysis: Jan. 11 - 30, 2007 • Release of Executive Results: Jan. 31, 2007 • Release of the Technical Report: Feb 23, 2007 • Process • Partner Agriculture & Livestock Planning Meetings in NBI (Dec. 5 ) • Regional Partner Planning Meeting in NW, NE, S, SE/SW (Dec. 11 - 12) • Fieldwork (Dec. 13, 2006 – Jan. 3, 2007) • Regional Analysis Workshops in NW & NE (Jan. 4 - 10) • All Team Deyr Analysis Workshop: Hargeisa (Jan. 11 – Jan. 24) • Technical Vetting Meeting with Partners (Jan. 29) • Release of Summary Findings: FSRD Meeting (Jan. 31) • Release of FSAU Technical Series Report Deyr 2006/07 Analysis (Feb. 23) • 3. Partners (40) • WFP, HAVOYOCO, SRCS, TFG, MoRD (SL), MoH&L (SL), MoL (SL), MoA (SL), NERAD, CARE, UNICEF, AFREC, ACF, WVI, SC-UK, OCHA, DRC, PENHA, Oxfam GB, Vetaid, CSIC, Horn Relief, MoLG (PL), MoALE (PL), HADMA (PL), SVO, Concern, MWMR (SL), SWA JCC, SDIO, SAF, MERCY, SADO, GREENHOPE, GAA, CCS, ASEP, MSFB, GHC, Muslim Aid FSAU Post Deyr ‘06-’07 AssessmentTimeline, Process & Partners

  4. Methods & Instruments • Rapid Field Assessment Methods: Individual Interviews, Focus Group Interviews, Key Informants, Triangulation, Field Observations • Food & Livelihood Security Assessment Instruments: Crop Production Survey, Pastoral Survey, Nutrition Assessments, Market Price Survey, Flood Impact Survey, Conflict Monitoring Survey • FSAU Generated Monitoring Data: Market Prices Data, Somali Livelihoods Indicator Monitoring System (SLIMS data), Sentinel Site Data, Monthly Food Security Field Reports • Nutrition data sources: Nutrition Assessments, Rapid assessments (using MUAC), H-Facilities/ HIS, Sentinel Site Surveillance, Selective feeding centers, Dietary studies, & field observations • Secondary Information: H-Facility Data, Satellite Imagery, Agency/NGO/UN Regional & Country Reports • Integrated Analysis: Regional Post Deyr Assessment Reports, IPC Evidence Based Template, IPC Map and Population Tables FSAU Post Deyr ’06-’07 AssessmentMethods & Instruments

  5. FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Field Work Assessment Data Point Locations

  6. Sector Analysis • Summary Results

  7. Climate Deyr 2006/07 Rainfall Performance Gulf of Aden DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden DJIBOUTI Awdal Awdal Sanag Sanag Bari Bari W. Galbeed W. Galbeed Togdheer Sool Togdheer Sool Nugal Nugal ETHIOPIA ETHIOPIA Mudug Mudug Galgadud Galgadud Hiran Bakool Hiran Bakool Indian Ocean Gedo Gedo M. Shabelle Indian Ocean M. Shabelle Bay Bay L. Shabelle L. Shabelle KENYA M.Juba KENYA M.Juba L.Juba L.Juba Cumulative Rainfall (mm), Oct-Dec, 2006 Oct-Dec, ’06 as % of long term mean

  8. Climate Comparison of El Nino: Deyr ’06/’07 and Deyr ’97/98 (Cumulative Rainfall 2006 cf. 1997) RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 2006 RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 1997

  9. ClimateFloods:Aerial View, Buale District, Middle Juba, Dec. ‘06

  10. ClimateFloods: Beletweyn, Hiran Region, Nov. ‘06

  11. [1] FSAU,FEWSNET, SWALIM & Flood Working Group analysis “Population Displacement Estimates-Deyr seasonal rains 2006” (Nov-Dec). Best Estimates based on triangulation of all Field Estimates from Field Reports, Interagency Flood Assessments and UNOSAT Radar Estimates [2] Population estimates by region/district, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the official estimates provided by UNDP [3] Displaced Population calculated by multiplying the number of hh’s by hh size of 6 [4] All areas flooded refer to maize areas with exception of Hiran which is Sorghum area

  12. COF19: March. – May.2007 (Source: ICPAC) 20 45 35 20 35 45 20 45 35

  13. Civil InsecurityKey Defining Issues: Impacts (Oct. to Dec. ’06) • IMPACTS (GENERAL) • IMPACTS ON FOOD, NUTRITION AND LIVELIHOOD SECURITY NOT AS GREAT AS MAY BE ANTICIPATED • Displacement, in generalof short duration and short distance from urban to rural surrounding areas plus someof longer distance (for example, cross border to Kenya). Increased resource pressure on host communities • Limited disruption to seasonal agricultural and pastoral activities (flood recession planting, livestock migration) butsome reduction in labour pool leading to disruption to weeding activities at a crucial period in the crop cycle • Disruption to market access compounding difficulties in access due to flooding • Official Kenya-Somalia border closure on 3rd January 2007 compounding trade and population movement • Dramatic shrinking of humanitarian space compounding existing access problems and RVF activities

  14. INSECURITY: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (JANUARY – JUNE 2007) • Until effective measures are in place there will be increasing localised insecurity (including banditry and roadblocks, tensions between clans including clan retaliation, resource based conflicts, insurgency, and a renewal of marine piracy) • Main areas of risk: Middle and Lower Juba, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud and south Mudug • Current areas of concern: Hiran and Central (Haradheere, Hobyo and Adaado; Maxaas); Juba (Badhadhe/Doblei, Beerhane); Middle Shabelle (Biyo-Cadde) POTENTIAL OUTCOMES INCLUDE: • Disruption of the movement of local cereals(and other commodities) within the country and across regional borders (for example, Ethiopia-Somalia) increasing market prices • Continuation of the Kenya-Somalia border closure disrupting cross-border trade and population movement • Restriction of livestock movement • Continuation of localised short-term displacement • Restriction of humanitarian space

  15. Agriculture Deyr 2006/07 Cereal Production Estimates in Somalia • Summary Conclusions • Deyr ‘06/’07 Cereal production is roughly 111,000 Mt • Which is 262% of Deyr ’05/’06 and 113% of Deyr PWA (1995 – 2005) • Maize is 21% and Sorghum is 79% of the Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Production • Regional Differences • Four regions with poor crop production: 50% to 55% of PWA (1995-05) • (Lower Juba 52%, L/Shabelle 55%, Gedo 50% and M/Shabelle 51%) • Three regions with exceptional crop production: > PWA (1995-05) • (Bakool 398%, Bay 228%, and Middle Juba 124%) • Northwest crop Gu/Karan ‘06 exceptional crop production: • (25,000 Mt or 147% of PWA 1995-05)

  16. Agriculture Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates - Southern Somalia

  17. Agriculture Gu/Karan ‘06 Cereal Crop Establishment Estimates, Northwest

  18. SOMALIA: AGRICULTURE DEYR ‘06/’07 PRODUCTION AS PERCENT OF PWA (1995-2005) BY DISTRICT

  19. Agriculture Exceptional Sorghum Crop, Wajid, Bakool Region, Dec. ‘06

  20. Damaged Rainfed Maize, North Brava, Lower Shabelle Damaged Maize Crop, Burgan, Lower Juba

  21. AgricultureTrend in Annual Cereal Production *Off Season cereal production estimate for both Gu and Deyr is not included (23,360MT)

  22. AgricultureTrend in Regional Cereal Prices (US$)

  23. MarketsTrend in Exchange Rates SOSH and SLSH To US$ (1998-2006) Monthly Exchange Rates- SOSH and SLSH to USD

  24. MarketsImported Commodity Prices Juba Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange rate

  25. Livestock Somalia: Livestock Migration Trends, Oct . – Dec. ‘06

  26. LivestockWater, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions

  27. Improved Pasture, Buale, Middle Juba, Dec ‘06 Livestock

  28. 1 WaterAvailability 1. Water catchment, Hudur, Bakool, Dec. ‘06 2. Water catchment, Bay, Dec. ‘06 3. Walaq, Wajid district, Bakool, Dec. ‘06 2 3

  29. 1 Improving livestock body conditions: cattle, goats and sheep 1. Bansofi, Wajid, Bakool, Dec. ‘06 2. Bay, Dec. ’06 3. Northwest, Nov. ‘06 3 2

  30. LivestockTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  31. LivestockTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  32. LivestockTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  33. LivestockAverage Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (US$)

  34. Livestock Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices (US$)

  35. LivestockRegional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat

  36. LivestockBerbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads)and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

  37. LivestockLivestock Export Trends from Berbera & Bossaso Pre- and Post War

  38. Nutrition FSAU Nutrition Analyst measuring MUAC, Bay Region, Dec 06

  39. Nutrition Key Indicators and Categorization

  40. Nutrition Key Indicators and Categorization Contd.

  41. Current Nutrition Situation Somalia NUTRITION SITUATION JULY 2006 NUTRITION SITUATION JANUARY 2007

  42. B. Current Food & Livelihood Security Phase ClassificationsSummary Results

  43. Somalia Food Security Phase Classification Post Gu ’06 Projection Jul ‘06 - Dec ’06 Post Deyr ’06/’07 Projection Jan - June ’07

  44. Table 1: Estimated Rural Population by Region in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups. Table 1B: Summary Table2 [1] Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population figures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the official estimates provided by UNDP [2] Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest five thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning [3] Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 [4] Source: UN-OCHA updated April 2004 (376,630) and UNHCR IDP map Dec.2005 (407,000), rounded to 400,000 as an estimate [5]Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

  45. Thank you

  46. Summary of Change in Population Numbers in AFLC & HE (Gu ’06 vs Deyr ’06/’07 • Gu ’06 Deyr ’06/’07 • AFLC & HE 1.3 590,000 • HE 425,000 230,000 • AFLC 880,000 360,000 • AFLC declined - mostly due to NE/NW, Central, Bay improvements • Juba/Gedo – same number but shift from HE to AFLC for Agro-pastoralist/Pastoralists • Juba/Gedo/Hiran Riverine – worsening situation

  47. Livestock Unknown Camel Disease Tieglow, Jan. ‘07 Hiran, Dec. ‘06

  48. Step 1 - Evidence Based Template: HIRAN

  49. Step 1 - Evidence Based Template: GEDO

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