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Caltrans Monthly Finance Report

Caltrans Monthly Finance Report. Presented to the California Transportation Commission August 5, 2004. Overview. Cash balance changes, compared to May Forecast: SHA: -$165 million PTA: +$42 million TCRF: +$67 million

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Caltrans Monthly Finance Report

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  1. Tab 44 (3.1) Caltrans Monthly Finance Report Presented to the California Transportation Commission August 5, 2004

  2. Overview Cash balance changes, compared to May Forecast: SHA: -$165 million PTA: +$42 million TCRF: +$67 million New forecasts will be presented to the Commission at the next meeting, after the impact of the new budget is fully analyzed.

  3. Federal Budget Update Federal Budget Has Passed; Authorization Has Not • Consolidated Appropriation Act (CAA) signed January 23, 2004. • CAA includes 2004 Transportation appropriation. • Federal program authorization approved only through July 31, 2004. • Level of future federal funds still being deliberated.

  4. State Budget Update • An agreement on the Budget has been reached. • The following cash forecasts are based on our understanding of the Budget agreements. • The 2004-05 Budget Act has been signed; however the final impact of other budget decisions can not be determined. • Trailer bills and other budget related legislation could impact the forecasts.

  5. MULTI-YEAR STATE HIGHWAY ACCOUNT CASH FORECAST ($ in millions) $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 -$1,500 -16 46 298 192 -34 125 240 124 413 510 540 500 510 480 420 170 290 250 190 200 350 180 360 290 400 480 370 470 330 550 680 580 630 770 860 770 Forecast No votes 510 540 500 510 480 420 170 290 240 170 170 300 120 270 160 240 270 100 130 -80 50 90 -110 -140 -90 -80 -250 Base Vote: $2.2B in 04-05 June Forecast Assumptions u Assumes full fix to ethanol and associated increase in appropriation authority u Intra-year cash balances for the Fund Estimate are averaged based on beginning and ending cash balances. u Assumes all Finance Letters at the level presented at the May Revise u Assumes that the $184 million transfer from the GF u Base level of "full votes" is $1.9B + $300M additional appropriation, total $2.2B - Vote spread assumes that approximately 60% of the vote occurs in the 4th quarter of the fiscal year u Assumes no votes beyond 2004-05 year u Assumes new Federal collection numbers as presented to the CTC in the May forecast u Does not assume revenues resulting from the renegotiation of tribal gaming compacts (Budget Bill Section 16) Assumption Change from June u $184 million transfer from the GF is reduced to $20 million State Highway Account Cash Forecast 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Jul-03 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-04 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-05 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -16 20 60 100 140 180 220 260 300 340 370 373 390 410 430 450 470 490 510 530 550 570 590 613 600 590 580 570 560 550 550 540 530 530 530 520 2004 SHA Fund Estimate

  6. State Highway Account May Revise Impact Forecast • Budget changes that affect the SHA cash forecast: • $184M TCRF loan repayment – Reduced to $20M. • $300M capital appropriation contingent upon ethanol fix. • Increase in State Operations • $52.5M for Maintenance • $174.9M for Capital Outlay Support • $17.5M for miscellaneous support items • Does not assume revenues resulting from the renegotiation of tribal gaming compacts (Budget Bill Section 16). Section 16 was deleted from the final Budget Act. • The SHA forecast assumes that the ethanol impact is fully mitigated.

  7. Uncertainties in the Forecast • A budget agreement has been reached, but items such as trailer bills and other budget related legislation are not final, and could change the forecast. • The amount of future federal funds for 2004-05 and beyond is still being deliberated by Congress. • The great deal of uncertainty surrounding some of our major revenue sources indicates a need for a prudent allocation plan. • The plan on the following page begins with an even, moderate, rate of gross allocations, so that we can re-assess our situation in December, when more information will be available.

  8. Cash Flow with Assumed Allocation Targets

  9. SHA – What Happens if Ethanol Isn’t Fixed?

  10. PTA and TCRF Forecasts • No known changes to the proposed May Revise have affected the forecasts for the PTA and TCRF. • The following forecasts assume the implementation of all items contained in the budget agreement. • Do not assume revenues resulting from the renegotiation of tribal gaming compacts (Budget Bill Section 16). Section 16 was deleted from the final Budget Act.

  11. Public Transportation Account Cash Forecast

  12. Traffic Congestion Relief Fund Forecast

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