NCPP – status and directions 20110426

1. NCPP – status and directions20110426 Prepared by: Galia Guentchev, Richard Rood, and Caspar Ammann

2. Values • Community built • An open-source community enterprise • scientists, developers, users would come together and collaborate in creating regional climate information for climate impacts and risk assessments • Emphasis on collaboration and participatory contribution by interested members • NCPP is to provide: • standardization of approaches, tools, translational information • up-to date scientific regional climate information relative to pressing climate impacts issues and adaptation goals for the nation • in support of decision-makers and practitioners

3. What we have done • Formed a NCPP Technical team • In charge with developing of digital and translational data infrastructure • Contains 39 members • From NOAA (NCDC, GFDL, ESRL, CPC), USGS, PCMDI, NCAR, University of Michigan, Michigan State University, University of Texas (CUAHSI), Michigan Technical University, NASA • Bi-weekly teleconferences, to start weekly teleconferences next week • Core Organizing Team • Starting next week - weekly meetings with scientists from NOAA ESRL PSD and CIRES

4. Connections we have made • NOAA – PSD, NCDC, GFDL, CPC, Climate.gov • DOI – USGS, Bureau of Reclamation • NCAR – Climate and society group • DOE – PCMDI • NASA

5. What we have learned • Need for qualitative information – narratives • What has happened? • What is going to happen? • How it will impact the user? • Need for application-specific tailored data • Based on user needs • For non-standard regions – state, city, watershed, ecological region • In user-friendly formats – GIS, other • Need for value-added information - indices • Persistence of dry and wet periods, Growing degree days, Cooling degree days, Heating degree days, Heat waves, Cold spells, other • Need for ensemble analysis • using sets of GCMs • multiple SRES emissions scenarios • variety of downscaling techniques • Need for uncertainty description of the downscaled data for risk assessment

6. What we are doing • Inventory of RISAs • focus of RISA • currently available efforts and capabilities within the RISAs that could be supported and/or could contribute to the goals of NCPP • Inventory of existing international projects • PRUDENCE • STARDEX • ENSEMBLES • Identification of resources • Already existing downscaled data sets • BCSD - Maurer et al. 2007 monthly downscaled data set at PCMDI • Hayhoe daily downscaled data set to be serviced by USGS • NARCCAP dynamically downscaled data set • Downscaled data sets under construction, soon to be available • BCCA – Dass and Cayan, daily downscaled data set, to be serviced at PCMDI, in collaboration with Bureau of Reclamation

7. What we are doing • Design of an environment to support: • scientific investigations of downscaled data • use of downscaled data by practitioners • Which includes: • Rationalizing of the extensible NCPP platform • starting with the current capabilities (based on the Maurer et al. 2007 already downscaled data set) • working towards the “mature” platform with inclusion of ensembles of projections from different portals. • Identifying tools needed to support climate impacts assessments by users • Developing process sequences for climate change impacts assessments to be included in the translational guidance documents

8. What we plan to do • OpenClimateGIS • Create infrastructure to supply tailored downscaled data in various user-friendly GIS formats and for a variety of non-standard regions • Environment for qualitative analysis - translational information and narratives • Define process for collection and introduction of translational information: • Identify elements of translational information to be included by industry/by spatial scale (if needed), based on indicated user needs and literature review; • Identify entities interested in participation in the development of such information (including the users) and capable of producing such information; • Identify existing sources of such information; • Identify the process of inclusion of translational information within the platform

9. What we plan to do • Environment for quantitative analysis • Catalog existing applications’ studies, formulate lessons learned and gaps in knowledge • Identify sets of successfully applied downscaling approaches for different applications • Summarize advantages and disadvantages of the techniques by application • Identify specific user needs by application • temporal and spatial scales of interest, indices and variables of interest • Prototype processes and conceptualize and identify necessary and ready to use tools • coresponding to the various stages of implementation of the NCPP platform and creating downscaled climate information • Identify existing ready to use downscaling methodologies • Identify methodologies to assess uncertainty related to downscaled data • Documentation • Initiate the development of a repository of: • best practices and standards, • recommendations and guidance documents related to downscaling of climate data and the implementation and interpretation of these data • manuscripts of applications’ studies by industry or natural resource • technical documentation about the data sets, methodology, formats, etc.

10. What we plan to do • Develop a collection of tools to be employed in climate impacts studies by users • such as, quality control of observed data tool, validation tool, ensemble analysis tool, uncertainty analysis tool, projections probability tool, various translational information tools • Public face of the platform – develop web presence of NCPP • Facilitate development of science and applications team • to identify, oversee, and regulate the application of the scientific approaches to creating of downscaled climate data • Longer term goal – 2013 Workshop on quantitative comparison of downscaling approaches and techniques

11. Relation to NCA • Our goal is on the sustainability of the NCA and provision of infrastructure to support the future of NCA. • The NCPP will create the digital and scientific infrastructure necessary for supplying downscaled climate information, a variety of derived indices and translational information for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). • The repository of available products, tools, manuscripts, guidance and translational documents will be a resource for the NCA in the future. • The workshop on assessment of the existing downscaling techniques will inform the work of the scientists involved in the development of downscaling techniques and those involved in the NCA.