Five-Year Plan CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO) AFGHANISTAN

1. Five-Year Plan CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO) AFGHANISTAN by: Abdul Rahman Ghafoori President General, CSO PARIS21 Seminar Meetings , 5 – 7 November, Paris

2. INTRODUCTION • The war caused wide spread destruction in Afghanistan • Currently, CSO is hardly comparable with NSOs in the neighboring countries • Capacity building and institutional development are seriously needed • These observations were also contained/made by: • Statistical Master Plan, • UNFPA consultants, and • International Census Advisory Board (ICAB)

3. INTRODUCTION • CSO has to respond to the growing needs for data particularly the Afghanistan National Development Strategies (ANDS) and MDGs • This will prepare CSO to conduct the Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (APHC) in 2010. • Also, it is expected to enable CSO to stand on its own feet while minimizing its dependency on International Consultants

4. INTRODUCTION FRAMEWORK Institutional Development & Strengthening CSO Capacity Building & Enhancing its Statistical Capacity 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census

5. I. Institutional Development and Capacity Building • Institutional development and capacity building will be undertaken in the following areas: • ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT • STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT • ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

6. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT • Institutional restructuring by itself will be insufficient for creation of an effective statistical system in the country. • It will demand programs that promote organizational development, apart from investments in physical infrastructure and development of appropriate statistical infrastructure

7. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n) • 1. User-producer relations workshops in October 2008 • High-level Government officials, representatives of the private sector, donors, and CSO managers participated. • The key underlying themes were: • changed role of statistics in a market economy, • role of various stakeholders, • safeguards for maintaining the integrity of the statistical system, • importance of priority setting, and • adoption of international standards and best practices

8. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n) • 2. Preparation of Directory of Statistical outputs • This will be done in consultation with different ministries and data producing agencies through a review of the range of statistics presently with different agencies and international organizations. • The Directory will help identify: • data gaps; • over-lapping and duplications; • data collected but not used in publications. • Also, it will provide the basic building blocks for the preparation of the proposed Metadata and database

9. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n) • 3. Review of Statistics Law • The Statistics Law needs further revision. It was found out by CSO and recommendations incorporated in the Statistical Master Plan. Further recommendations made by UNFPA consultants • Some of the recommendations made : •  Inclusion of some statistical terms for clarity •  Strengthening CSO as the clearing house of any data collection activity • Inclusion of some tasks (Compilation of National accounts, Computation of Consumer Price Indices, Preparation of Input- Output (I-O) tables)

10. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n) • 4. Administrative re-structuring of CSO • At present, the structure of CSO is being streamlined to contribute to the overall institutional strengthening. • 5. Observational Tours for Senior Managers • The senior management team at CSO shall visit the statisticaloffices of selected neighboring countries to obtain first hand insights into the experience of these countries in managing the process of statistical reform

11. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n) • 6. Short-TermTrainings • CSO has identified a number of in-house trainings in: • Basic Mathematics/Statistics • Sampling Design • Statistical Data Analysis/Software • 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA 93) • Socio-Demographic and Economic Indicators • Enterprise/Establishment Business Indicators • Technical Report Writing • Basic Computer • Management • Monitoring and Evaluation • Financial and Budget Management • English Language

12. A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (concluded) • 7. Academic Training • CSO staff need to be well equipped with sufficient background on demography, statistics, economics, and IT • 8. On-the-job training (assignment of staff to statistical offices of neighboring countries) • Detailing CSO staff to statistical offices of other countries is another option by which the staff will learn-by-doing (on-the-job training)

13. STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT • 1. Development and Implementation of Household Master Sample • With the listing of households to serve as the frame for household surveys, and for several other surveys which starts next year, having only one sampling design will be cost efficient

14. STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT(cont’n) • 2. Improvement of population estimates/ projections • At present, estimates of population are computed using the population growth rate, on the assumption that the population dynamics in the future will be the same as in the past. • However, there is a need to incorporate demographic changes in fertility, migration, and mortality in the estimation of population since in the post conflict situations, demographic changes are significant

15. STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (concluded) • 3. Development of Sampling Design for IBES • There is a need to re-design the sampling methodology for IBES to be more responsive to the changing structure of the economy • CSO plans to replace business registers with Census of Establishments and regular updating of these establishments through the Listing of Establishments • 4. Updating the List of Establishments • The list will serve as the sampling frame for future establishment surveys

16. C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT • 1. Improvement of CSO Website • Website as a medium for data dissemination and information campaign needs updating • 2. Installation of Internet facilities in selected cities • This is very important in any statistical office • Initial installation will be in major seven cities

17. C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (cont’n) • 3. Improvement of CSO Library • CSO needs to have a system where data could be stored and properly accessed. • Library needs improvement (books already outdated; small space; unorganized system) • Establishment of the Training Institute crucially requires a good library for its students • 4. Re-construction of CSO Printing Press • CSO is printing a lot of instructional and dissemination materials. • With several data collection activities to be conducted, CSO’s in-house printing will be very cost efficient.

18. C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (cont’n) • 5. Construction of buildings for 28 Provincial Statistics Offices • Field offices play a very important role in data collection. Thus, they need to be provided with appropriate and useful facilities. • At present, six out of the 34 Provincial Statistics Offices are permanently housed in CSO buildings. • 6. Transportation Needs • Transportation facilities for Department Directors, PSOs, and District Officers • Maintenance and repair of vehicles

19. C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (cont’n) • 7. Renovation of CSO Kabul Office • CSO building in Kabul is already old and received damages during the war. Thus, it requires renovation. • This will provide a much better and encouraging working environment • Some of the priority areas for renovation are the washrooms, re-painting of the buildings, and concreting of CSO premises

20. C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (concluded) • 8. Construction of Building for Statistical Training Institute • The Statistical Training Institute is envisioned to provide all statistical training needs of the country’s statistical system, not only for CSO but for other government offices as well. • The building for the Statistical Training Institute will also house the CSO Library and Printing Press

21. II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • A number of surveys and three censuses are to be conducted during the proposed period of five years. • These activities respond to the data needs and enhance visibility of CSO as data producer, and increase the experience of CSO staff while creating confidence in them.

22. II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (cont’n) • A. Household Sample Surveys • Survey on Participation of Women and Men in Decision Making • Policy makers, administrators, planners, and international organizations will be provided with comprehensive and up-to-date baseline data on women and men at the decision-making levels. • The data can be used for promoting gender equality and empowerment of women.

23. II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (cont’n) • 2. Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) • The survey shall collect information about health of children and women such as: • immunization coverage of children below two years, • Vitamin A supplementation of pregnant and lactating women and of children below two years; • education and work of children; and • child protection.

24. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • (cont’n) • 3. Labor Force Survey • The data will be used to assess employment status, occupation, and industry structure in the country. • In order to capture seasonality in employment, visits to the households will be done, initially every six months and then quarterly for the years to come

25. II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (cont’n) • 4. Household Income and Expenditure Survey • Data will be used to assess poverty situation in the country, income inequality, sources of income, spending patterns of the households, and factors affecting income and expenditure. • Survey results will provide benchmark information to update weights in the estimation of consumer price index, and inputs for the national accounts.

26. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • (cont’n) • 5. Child Labor Survey • The survey will provide data on the extent of involvement of children in labour related activities. • This will also include data on children’s education, living arrangement, and problems children are facing in their work environment including their exposure to health hazards and reasons for engaging in such environment.

27. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • (cont’n) • 6. Demographic and Health Survey • It shall collect information on: • reproductive health; • mortality (infant and under-five mortality rates); • fertility and factors that determine the level and trends; • knowledge and attitudes of women and men about sexually transmitted infections and HIV/AIDS; and • family health, including immunizations, prevalence and treatment of diarrhea and other diseases among children under five, antenatal visits, assistance at delivery, and breastfeeding.

28. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • (cont’n) • 7. National Risk and Vulnerability Survey • Objectives: • to collect information at community and household level to better understand livelihoods of Kuchi, rural and urban households throughout the country, and • to determine the types of risks and vulnerabilities they face. • 8. Census of Agriculture • Objective: to provide agricultural information such as number of agricultural operators, crops planted, area planted/harvested, etc.

29. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity • (concluded) • Establishment Statistics • Integrated Business Establishment Survey • It will provide information on the size or employment, revenue, inputs used, production, and other enterprise related information. • The data will be used as inputs to national accounts, GDP, and other enterprise-based indicators. • 2. Census of Establishments • It will provide a complete listing of all establishments in the country, including their sizes, revenue, production, etc.

30. III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census • 1. Updating of Household Listing and Enumeration Areas • Serves as baseline information when estimating the 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (APHC) workload of enumerators and controllers of the census. • To establish some quality checks for the 2010 APHC. That is, to eliminate over and under reporting of the population • Serve as a frame for the socio-demographic surveys that will be conducted by CSO later on.

31. III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (cont’n) • 2. Setting up of Regional Units and District Offices • The International Regional Advisers will be in-charge of the smooth conduct of the census in the assigned regions in accordance with international standards. • They will take care of publicity, assessment of security, coordinate with local officials, and conduct of capacity building for CSO Provincial Staff. • One of the recommendations of the ICAB is the gradual setting up of permanent District Offices. • These are vital in ensuring proper coordination of activities at the district level as they are much closer to local officials.

32. III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (cont’n) • 3. Pilot census • Pilot census is a full dress rehearsal of the census procedures and materials. • This will be conducted in order to test if all census materials such as questionnaires and manuals in all languages, and procedures such as recruitment, training, processing, tabulation and analysis, are error-free.

33. III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (concluded) • 4. Publicity Campaign • A massive information campaign is required to: • make CSO censuses and other activities known to the people • solicit cooperation from respondents. • It would involve the participation of the local people – Mullahs, village heads, and other influential people.

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36. Thank You