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Stan Holland Staff Engineer

Stan Holland Staff Engineer. Reserve Modeling Options Modeling Work Group December 5, 2011. Outline. TEPPC reserve modeling in previous study years Sample results from 2020 PC1 study case Potential improvements Implementation of daily or hourly reserve requirement Non-spinning reserve

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Stan Holland Staff Engineer

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  1. Stan HollandStaff Engineer Reserve Modeling Options Modeling Work Group December 5, 2011

  2. Outline • TEPPC reserve modeling in previous study years • Sample results from 2020 PC1 study case • Potential improvements • Implementation of daily or hourly reserve requirement • Non-spinning reserve • Flexibility reserve • Time constraints

  3. Reserve Modeling in 2010 study program • An operating reserve requirement was modeled • Promod modeled operating reserve based on the weekly peak demand • Reserves were set at 4% (spinning only) for each sub-region • Reserve levels can be set for areas (bubbles) or pools (sub-regions). • No other limitations were set • Reserve contributions can be specified for each unit to set how much, type (spinning or quick start) and how fast . Ramp rates adhere to the parameter ramp rates for each unit.

  4. Snapshot of NW-US with 4% Reserve2020 PC1 Results Reserve requirement in Promod is modeled based on the weekly peak demand. The peak for the first week in the graph occurs on 8/24 and the reserve requirement of 961 MW (24034 × 0.04) prompts Promod to ensure that there is 961 MW of responsive “spinning” generation for each hour of the week.

  5. Snapshot of Southern California subregion2020 PC1 Results In the first week Promod ensures that there is 1,468 MW of local generation that contributes towards the operating reserve in each hour. The next slide shows the reserve requirement.

  6. Southern CA Reserve Requirement2020 PC1 Results This shows the difference between the Promod requirement and the calculated hourly reserve requirement.

  7. Reserve Contribution Shows the reserve contribution during the first week of the snapshot.

  8. Observations • Wind and Solar resources are balanced by thermal resources. • Reserve contribution from thermal units increases as output decreases

  9. Potential Improvements • Granularity of reserve requirement • Change from weekly reserve requirement to daily or hourly requirement • Add modeling of non-spinning reserve • Quick start units could contribute to reserves • Reserve requirement would have to be increased from 4% to a higher value • Add modeling of “flexibility reserve” to capture increased reserves for variable generation

  10. Change in Reserve granularity • Promod is designed to model a weekly reserve requirement; however there is a workaround that can be implemented to model a daily or hourly reserve requirement • Workaround uses a purchase and offsetting sale to create a “shaped” reserve requirement. Purchase is designated to contribute to the operating reserve.

  11. Implementation of hourly reserve requirement The hourly reserve requirement (green) is the same as the plot of 4% of hourly load in slide 5 (scale expanded here to show the offset sale).

  12. Non-spinning Reserve • WECC operating reserve specifies a 50% rule of spinning versus non-spinning • TEPPC use of 4% spinning was an approximation of WECC rule • Could designate quick start units and increase reserve requirement to capture contribution of offline combustion turbines and internal combustion units

  13. Flexibility Reserves • Studies outside of TEPPC have found that high penetrations of wind and solar may increase the reserve requirement. • Tools at NREL and PG&E could be used to derive a composite hourly reserve requirement for each subregion

  14. Define Expectations • Primary goal is to ensure that sufficient reserves are modeled in the 10 year studies where state RPS standards create high penetrations of wind and solar resources • Secondary goal is to help production cost model to select units that provide adequate reserves and regulation • May need to encourage dispatch of higher cost units

  15. Average Variable Cost ($/MWh) – 2020 PC1

  16. Time Constraints • TAS allowed study program schedule to slip by one month for stakeholders to evaluate impacts of reserve modeling and cycling costs • Proposal for changes must be presented to TAS on December 15th. • Final dataset has to be ready by early January

  17. Questions?

  18. Test Case with Increased Reserve • Operating reserve increased in California and Northwest for MWG study work • Test 1 = from 4% to 10% • Test 2 = from 4% to 20%

  19. Generation Change Details – RM 10% CA+NW

  20. Generation Change Details – RM 20% CA+NW

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