FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page revised November 2007

1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pagerevised November 2007 • Title: GOES Tropical Cyclone (TC) Applications Research • Project Type(s): Product Development, Improvement, & Utilization • Status: New • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • Chris Velden – CIMSS (PI) • Tim Olander – CIMSS • Dave Stettner -- CIMSS • Other Participants: • Mike Turk (SSD/SAB Collaborator) • Derrick Herndon – CIMSS • Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/RAMM/CIRA Collaborator)

2. 2. Project Summary • Proposed Task 1: Continue the exploration of new and innovative methods for integration into the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) to improve estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from GOES. Approaches: 1) Explore the integration of other GOES channels (VIS, IR/WV differencing, SWIR). The current algorithm version only employs the GOES IR-W. 2) Analyze and mitigate known biases in the ADT estimates. Example: ADT has difficulty with emerging EYE scenes. 3) Based on a request from NHC and SAB, explore extending the ADT scope of operations to pre-Depression, Subtropical, and Extratropical Transition stages. The current version only operates on purely tropical systems of at least Depression strength. • Proposed Task 2: Continue the development and evaluation of a new algorithm called SATCON, which yields a weighted consensus estimate of TC intensity from multiple satellite sources (incl. GOES/ADT). • Proposed Task 3: As part of public outreach and user utilization of GOES data, we propose to set up an on-line archive of GOES derived products developed and processed by the CIMSS TC group over the past decade.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • NOAA Mission Goals: • This product development primarily supports: Weather and Water • NOAA-wide Goals: • This product development primarily supports: Satellite Services • This research is being conducted to help mitigate the existing limitations of GOES derived products as applied to TCs. The research strategies proposed are novel, and promise to improve on the product quality, and utilization. • The proposed tasks build on a long and successful GIMPAP TC research program at CIMSS. Both the operational and research communities have frequently cited the importance of GOES products developed by CIMSS under NOAA GIMPAP support. We use this as motivation to continue to innovate and advance GOES product development towards TC applications.

4. 4. Methodology • We have collected large volumes of GOES multispectral images extending over many years. From this imagery we have derived products applicable to TC analysis. • We have collocated (space and time) Atlantic TC aircraft reconnaissance datasets. • Proposed Task 1) Using the aircraft data as ground truth, we intend to utilize empirical/statistical approaches to optimize the ADT algorithm and extend its operation to new stages of TC development (pre-Depr., ST, ET). Matched ADT/recon comparisons will be compiled and statistically evaluated based on selected stratifications that will address known ADT performance biases (i.e., explore other spectral bands), and to examine the potential for application to pre-Depr, ST and ET systems. • Proposed Task 2) Results from 1) above will be used to re-derive TC estimate weights in the SATCON algorithm, and to explore the extension of SATCON applications to other storm stages mentioned above. The recon data will be used to validate the performance of the SATCON algorithm. • Proposed Task 3) SSEC will purchase a RAID storage system as part of an upgrade to the GOES archive (no cost to GIMPAP). The CIMSS TC group will be given disk space on this system to restore tape-archived GOES products processed by the group over the past decade (see supplemental slide for an example of products). An on-line graphical user interface will be developed to facilitate user data requests.

5. 5. Summary of Previous Results • Proposed Task 1: The ADT has been established into NWS operations (NHC, SAB, CPHC) through PSDI and JHT funding efforts. The algorithm produces estimates of TC intensity that are useful objective guidance to satellite analysts and TC forecasters. The latest ADT version summary and performance results can be found in the September 2006 issue of BAMS. • Proposed Task 2: Preliminary findings on the SATCON performance for estimates of TC intensity are encouraging. As reported on at the most recent Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the method beats existing satellite techniques for accuracy in most cases. However, the sample size needs to be increased, and the weighting scheme further optimized. • Proposed Task 3: GOES-derived products processed and made available by the CIMSS TC group in near-real time during TC events are disseminated via a popular web site (recently upgraded, see supplemental slides): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2 User and researcher requests for historical/archived datasets are frequent, but laborious to retrieve off of data tape libraries. The on-line archive system would greatly aid the ease and facilitation of GOES product utilization for TC research and applications.

6. 6. Expected Outcomes • Proposed Task 1)---ADT: A GOES PSDI is in place to facilitate transition of successful research results to the NESDIS operational algorithms. • Proposed Task 2)---SATCON: If successful, a PSDI proposal will be submitted to facilitate transition of the research results to the NESDIS/NWS operations. • Proposed Task 3)---On-line GOES Product Archive: The improved capability for user/researcher access to, and utilization of, GOES products for TC applications will be realized through the interactive, on-line archive system hosted at SSEC/CIMSS. • Documentation (i.e., User Manuals, Journal articles) will be written describing/updating the results of the research (Tasks 1 and 2).

7. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • Complete statistical assessment of proposed ADT modification tasks. • Re-derive coefficients for SATCON based on ADT results. Evaluate against recon verification. • Restore archived GOES derived products onto RAID storage system. Design and implement on-line GUI for user interaction. Open up to user community. • FY09 • Complete evaluation of ADT science upgrades. Assess new performance benchmark, and future research needs. Document modifications for potential psdi transition to operations. • Complete evaluation of SATCON modifications. Assess new performance benchmark, and future research areas. Document the algorithm for potential psdi transition to operations. • Maintain and update the GOES TC product on-line archive. Assess potential new products to be added. Address user feedback.

8. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • NOAA-PSDI grant (new start in late FY07, assuming extension through 08-09) has potential for leveraging some labor coverage for successful ADT code modifications deemed ready for operational transition to NESDIS/NWS. Note: 5K increase in FY08-09 is to facilitate the implementation of the on-line GOES product archive for enhanced user/public outreach.

9. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY07 • (75K): STAR Software Contractor (CIMSS) for 2 people at ~35% time from JAN 07 to JAN 08 • Personnel Support: Upgrade and Optimize CIMSS ADT algorithm, and GOES Saharan Air Layer product development • Travel support for 1 person to AMS Satellite Conference to present their work • FY08 • (80K): STAR Software Contractor (CIMSS) for 3 people at ~20% time from JAN 08 to JAN 09 • Personnel Support: Conduct studies on proposed GOES TC intensity estimation tasks • 5K -- Travel for 3 people (estimated 5 days each) to relevant TC conference/workshop (either IHC or AMS) to present updates/results of work done on this project • 5K -- Publication charges • FY09 • (80K): STAR Software Contractor (CIMSS) for 3 people at ~20% time from JAN 09 to JAN 10 • Personnel Support: Continue research on proposed GOES TC intensity estimation tasks • 5K – Travel for 3 people (estimated 5 days each) to relevant satellite or TC conference/workshop (either AMS or IHC) to present updates/results of work done on this project • 5K – Publication charges