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Detecting and Countering Civil Disturbances in Areas of EU- and NATO-led Operations

Photo: NATO. CIOR Study. Detecting and Countering Civil Disturbances in Areas of EU- and NATO-led Operations. Breaking the Circle of Violence. Civil Disturbances are a Challenge. Kosovo March 2004. Afghanistan May 2006. Kosovo February 2007. CIOR Study: Objectives.

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Detecting and Countering Civil Disturbances in Areas of EU- and NATO-led Operations

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  1. Photo: NATO CIOR Study Detecting and Countering Civil Disturbances in Areas of EU- and NATO-led Operations Breaking the Circle of Violence

  2. Civil Disturbances are a Challenge Kosovo March 2004 Afghanistan May 2006 Kosovo February 2007

  3. CIOR Study: Objectives • Using scientific competence • Transfer of academic knowledge • Provide vital information → To use the full potential of reserve officers

  4. Results • Concept to detect civil disturbances • Enabling forces abroad to undertake counter measures

  5. Post-conflict situation after civil war Special culture of violence Great amount of small and light weapons 1. Structural Conduciveness Structure of responsibility Public communication Locations of groups Control of public space Access to small arms by the population 2. Structural Strain Disadvantages for one or several groups Internal fights for supremacy Alterations in international relations 3. Specific generalized belief Structural approach to law Temporary advantages for one or several groups Groups hold high relational and cultural distance Groups are functionally independent No sanctions for taking matters in their own hands 4. A Precipitating Event Combination of events can lead to escalation 5. Mobilization for action Demonstrations 6. Effect of social control Security organizations Political leadership Informal actors Concept

  6. Examples

  7. Who is made responsible? ! !

  8. Is there public communication?

  9. Where are different (ethnic) groups located? ! !

  10. Does the police control public space?

  11. Does the population have access to small arms? YES YES

  12. Early Warning AOR: Priština et al. AOR: Kabul et al. → Civil disturbances are likely to occur

  13. Observe Tensions • Are there disadvantages for one or several (ethnic) groups? • What about internal fights for supremacy? • Are there alterations in international relations?

  14. “NO NEGOTIATIONS 12:44 TIME‘S UP UNMIK GO HOME!” Conclusion • Information on changes from the tactical level and • Tensions must be observed → Office of the Political Adviser including reserve officers

  15. Responsible: Oberleutnant d. R. Dipl.-Pol. Max Bornefeld-Ettmann Oberst d. R. Prof. Dr. Reiner Pommerin Dresden, University of Technology Providing tools to prevent conflict escalation Intellectual support to forces abroad Basis for new SOPs CIOR STUDY

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