FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (CDCs)

1. FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (CDCs) BY T. OLALEKAN WILLIAMS Head, Enterprise & Agric Section www.thecommonwealth.org

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE • WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY? • WHAT ARE THE LIKELY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) ON FOOD SECURITY IN CDCs? • HOW SHOULD CDCs RESPOND TO CC? • HOW CAN COMMOWEALTH INSTITUTIONS HELP CDCs TO ENSURE FOOD SECURITY IN THE FACE OF CC?

3. CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) • SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT CC IS ALREADY WITH US • PAST EMISSIONS OF GHG ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EARTH’S CLIMATE • CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL AND INCREASES IN FREQUENCY OF EXTREME EVENTS HAVE LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE FOOD SECURITY

4. FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN CDCs • THE DEVELOPING WORLD ALREADY CONTENDS WITH CHRONIC FOOD PROBELMS • FAO ESTIMATES THAT ABOUT 820 MILLION PEOPLE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE FOOD INSECURE • 45% OF THE UNDERNOURISHED (or about 370 MILLION) ARE FOUND WITHIN THE COMMONWEALTH

6. CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENTS YET ANOTHER CHALLENGE TO FOOD SECURITY IN CDCs THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED

7. WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY? • FOOD SECURITY IS THE ABILITY OF ALL PEOPLE AT ALL TIMES TO ACCESS ENOUGH FOD FOR AN ACTIVE AND HEALTHY LIFE • FOUR CONDITIONS MUST BE FULFILLED TO ENSURE FOOD SECURITY: AVAILABILITY; ACCESS; STABILITY AND UTILIZATION

8. FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY • AVAILABILITY • production • distribution • exchange • ACCESS • income • food aid FOOD SECURITY • UTILIZATION • nutrient content • food safety • human health • STABILITY • supplies • access

9. LINKS BETWEEN CC & FOOD SECURITY • ALL FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE • NONETHELESS, THE LINKS BEWTEEN CC AND FOOD SECURITY HAVE TO DATE LARGELY BEEN EXPLORED IN RELATION TO FOOD AVAILABILITY, PARTICULARLY CROP PRODUCTIVITY

10. OTHER DETERMINANTS OF FOOD SECURITY • Food security will depend not only on CC, but also on socio-economic conditions, including - household income - food prices - development pathway - trade flows - food stocks - food aid

11. Food insecure regions and countries at risk by climate event

12. Food insecure regions and countries at risk by climate event

13. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) AFRICA • By 2020, in some countries, yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% • The area suitable for agriculture, length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid areas are expected to decrease.

14. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) AFRICA • By 2020, between 75-250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress • Exotic livestock breeds (important for dairy production) will suffer production losses due to greater heat stress

15. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) AFRICA • Decreased fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures exacerbated by continued over-fishing which may negatively affect local food supplies • Towards the end of the 21st Century, projected sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. Cost of adaptation could amount to 5-10% of GDP.

16. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) ASIA • By 2050, crop yields could decrease up by up to 30% in South Asia • By 2050, freshwater availability in South and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease. This could adversely affect more than a billion people, with implications for food processing and food safety.

17. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) ASIA • Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoea diseases primarily associated with floods. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia, with implications for efficient food utilization.

18. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) SMALL ISLANDS • Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example, through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources (e.g., fisheries) and reduce the value of these destinations for tourism • By 2050s, fresh water is likely to be reduced in the Caribbean and Pacific to the point where it becomes insufficient to meet demand during low rainfall periods

19. POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.) SMALL ISLANDS • Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support food distribution and the livelihood of island communities.

20. RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE • There are two key ways of responding to climate change: - Adapt to the changes - Reduce through mitigation measures the sources (emission abatement) or enhance the sinks (sequestration) of GHG

21. RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE • Both adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to ensure food security • Mitigation measures are needed because agriculture contributes to CC. GHG emissions from the food and agriculture sector contribute over 30% of the current annual total emissions (agriculture 13.5%, deforestation 17.4%).

22. RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE • The most stringent efforts cannot prevent further impacts of CC in the next few decades, which makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts

23. RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Two types of adaptation • Autonomous adaptation may be insufficient given the projected magnitude of future changes in climate. • Planned adaptation measures, i.e., response strategies, often multi-sectoral and involving individual citizens and national governments aimed at altering the adaptive capacity of the agricultural systems will be required.

24. Adaptation to ensure food security

25. Mitigation activities to ensure food security

26. POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS • Inform and promote dialogue about the impacts of climate change and what options exist for reducing vulnerability • Assist CDCs to identify and evaluate adaptation and mitigation options and help to disseminate information on which ones are most applicable to their particular circumstances

27. POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS • Provision of technical assistance to build adaptive capacity and increase resilience, particularly in the most vulnerable countries • Support for mainstreaming planned adaptation and mitigation activities into overall country-specific development programmes and strategies (e.g., National Programs for Food Security, PRSPs etc.

28. POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS • Advocacy and support for the development of regional and international solutions (rather than unilateral solutions, for example, in adaptation to water shortage, deforestation etc) that will reduce pressure on national resources, carbon sinks and hunger.

29. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION www.thecommonwealth.org