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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau AD, DD,FD,ExFD 1974 – Move to WWB 1979 – CAC created 1984 – additions

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

  2. 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau AD, DD,FD,ExFD 1974 – Move to WWB 1979 – CAC created 1984 – additions Computer Operations from NOAA NHC NSSFC 1995 – NCEP created NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC, AWC, SPC (move to Norman in ’97), TPC SEC becomes NCEP’s 9th center (remains an OAR lab) 2004 – SEC enters NWS History of NCEP

  3. NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

  4. Total FTE: 426 146 Contractors/20 Visitors 51 FTE

  5. NCEP Central Operations (NCO) • Operates and maintains the operational suite of the numerical analyses and forecast models and prepares NCEP products for dissemination • Ingest and quality control of observational data from around the world • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  6. Computing Capability $26.4M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

  7. Environmental Modeling Center Develops and improves numerical weather, climate hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development • Global, regional domains • Weather, climate, hurricane, ocean, ozone models • Forecasts out to 16 days

  8. NCEP Operational Models Eta 12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z Global Forecast System (GFS) T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels 16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day RUC 20 km, 50 levels 12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z 3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z Climate Forecast System (CFS) T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 10 months/ 1/day at 00Z 40-level GFDL Modular Ocean Model (MOM3) GFDL Hurricane Model coupled ocean-atmosphere Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon) 42 levels 126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z Wave Model global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal) North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal) .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level 78 hours/4 times per day Ensembles global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs 28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs) regional 15 members at 0 and 12Z 32 km, 60 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

  9. NCEP Operational Models High Resolution Window (Non-hydrostatic Nest) 8 km, 60 levels, 48 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z AK, HI at 00Z, West US, PR at 06Z, Cent US, HI at 12Z, East US, PR at 18Z Fire Wx/IMET Support (Non-hydrostatic Nest) 8 km, 60 levels, 48 hours, up to 4/day Selectable area from 26, 900 km2 domains HYSPLIT Dispersion Model run on demand using 4 km Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) Air Quality Forecast System 12 km, 22 levels, 48 hours, 2/day at 6, 12Z Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) 12 km, 60 levels (downscaled locally to 5km) CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z 84-192 h 4 km terrain

  10. Hydrometeorological Prediction Center • Provides forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in support of the daily public forecasting activities of the National Weather Service and its customers • Quantitative precipitation forecasts, excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy ice & snow guidance • medium-range guidance (Days 3-7) • model diagnostic discussions and associated graphics tools • surface analyses & basic weather forecasts • International Training Desks • Winter Weather products • Provides tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.

  11. Day 1 QPF - 24 hour accumulated precipitation from HPC

  12. Ocean Prediction Center • Provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning, forecast, and analysis products and services for thenorth Atlantic and north Pacific • Atlantic and Pacific high seas • narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h • graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h • Offshore warnings • Sea-state analysis and forecast graphics • Weather analysis and forecast narratives • Global quality control of marine observations

  13. Climate Prediction Center • Assesses and predicts the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. • Climate Outlooks • Tropical Pacific SSTs • Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies • Seasonal Drought Outlooks • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks • Day 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks • Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Connection • UV Index • Climate monitoring • Oceans, drought, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, ozone

  14. Aviation Weather Center • Provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international airspace • Domestic programs • Area Forecast (FA) • AIRMETs/SIGMETs icing, turbulence, IFR, volcanic ash, • Convective SIGMETs thunderstorms, valid 2 hrs, outlook valid 2-6 hrs • CCFP significant thunderstorm outlook (2/4/6 hrs) • Low Level SIGWX prog • International Products • Gulf of Mexico Area Forecast for Helicopters • Caribbean Area Forecast for General Aviation • International SIGMETs for 7 Oceanic Areas • High Level Significant Weather Charts for 7 ICAO areas • International Flight Folder Documentation Program (IFFDP)

  15. Storm Prediction Center • Provides timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow, and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific products for those hazards. • Severe Weather Watches • Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks • Day 1 and 2 Fire Weather Outlooks • Mesoscale Discussions - issued when conditions appear favorable for severe storms development

  16. Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Jun 6, 2005

  17. Tropical Prediction Center • Provides official NWS forecasts of the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues the appropriate watches and warnings for the US and surrounding area. • Tropical cyclone products include tropical cyclone forecast/advisories, discussions, strike probabilities, and position estimates • Tropical marine products include high seas forecasts for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and south Pacific Oceans and offshore forecasts for for the southwest north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

  18. Thursday, 9/18/03 12 PM EDT 5-day forecast Hurricane Isabel 3-day forecast

  19. Space Environment Center • Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth • Monitors solar and geomagnetic activity 24 hours a day, alerts users when possibly disruptive or dangerous changes occur in the space environment and issues daily forecasts of space environment conditions • acts as the World Warning Agency for the space environment. • Synthesizes and disseminates information about past, present, and future conditions in the space environment for space weather users

  20. Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Winter Weather Guidance Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Day 8-14 Critical Weather Outlooks Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions Severe Weather Watches Marine High Seas Forecasts Hurricane Watches and Warnings Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts What Does NCEP Do? Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  21. NCEP Productshttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov Hydrometeorological Prediction Center http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Tropical Prediction Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Aviation Weather Center http://aviationweather.gov/ Space Environment Center http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ncep/

  22. EMC Project #1 Mesoscale Modeling Branch Evaluate simulated radar product from high-resolution WRF

  23. EMC Project #2 Marine Modeling And Analysis Branch Marine verification (sfc winds, p, temp, waves and SST) of forecaster and model output

  24. EMC Project #3 Marine Modeling And Analysis Branch Evaluation of fog and visibility products

  25. Projects with NCEP’s Central Operations • Develops N-AWIPS (Software Tools to Allow NCEP Meteorologists to Generate Forecast Products) • To ingest and display raw meteorological information • Imagery (satellite and radar) • Observations (surface and upper-Air) • Numerical weather prediction models (model guidance) • To draw meteorological objects for graphical final weather forecast generation • Fronts • Jets • Wind Barbs • Isobars • Clouds • Weather Symbols • Watch Boxes • Text Annotation • Turbulence/Icing • Designs and develops applications software (i.e.,Web, database, decoders, text and graphical products, data monitoring, etc.)

  26. Projects with NCEP’s Central Operations • Enhancing aspects of NAWIPS software • Apply the XML specification to aspects of meta-information storage throughout the system • To allow bigger grids with higher resolution, re-write the grid diagnostic sub-system • To allow more kinds of data sets • add the ability to read more formats • Add functionality to access data not on the local file server

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