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Status of D-PHASE

Status of D-PHASE. Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25-26.9.2006. Outline. Quick review of MAP D-PHASE Common interest and joint efforts with COPS Storage of atmospheric model data list of variables output format storage space needed

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Status of D-PHASE

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  1. Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25-26.9.2006

  2. Outline • Quick review of MAP D-PHASE • Common interest and joint efforts with COPS • Storage of atmospheric model data • list of variables • output format • storage space needed • Generation and visualisation of atmospheric model products • Questions to COPS • Milestones, organisation, and 1st MAP D-PHASE Meeting

  3. Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) • MAP: 1st WWRP RDP • Phase 1: Preparation, 1993 – 1999 • Phase 2: Special Observing Period, Sep – Nov 1999 • Phase 3: Analysis, ongoing (formally ended in Sep 2006) • MAP D-PHASE: • Phase 4 of MAP: Demonstration • Focus: • heavy precipitation … • … and hydrology • Endorsed as 2nd WWRP FDP in Oct 2005 • D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region • June – November 2007

  4. D-PHASE Approach: Distributed real-timeend-to-end forecasting system, including • (limited-area) probabilistic forecasting, both for atmospheric and hydrological processes • high-resolution deterministic modelling & nowcasting • centralised visualisation of model data and alerts • forecasters and end users • evaluation, objective and subjective

  5. end-to-end forecasting system

  6. Atmospheric models: ensembles COSMO-LEPSMOGREPS SREPS SRNWP PEPS micro-PEPS …

  7. Atmospheric models: high-resolution and others …

  8. Hydrological catchments Emilia-Romagna (Reno, Secchia) Liguria Lombardia (Oglio, Mella) Bavaria (Iller, Lech, Isar) Lago Maggiore Canton of Glarus (Linth) Canton of Wallis (Rhône) …

  9. International collaboration: COPS • Joint data archive • data (atmospheric and hydrological models, nowcasting tools, observational data) & data derived products • alerts • feedbacks • Generation of atmospheric model products (‘quicklooks’) • Visualisation of atmospheric model products

  10. Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored TIGGE (http://tigge.ecmwf.int) – inspired: • single level fields (up to 41 per output cycle) • e.g., 2m air temperature, Total precipitation: grid-scale only, Total column cloud ice (ice water content), Surface short wave radiation (outgoing), Convective Inhibition, … • upper-air fields (up to 11 variables) • e.g., temperature, cloud water, graupel, … • on up to 9 pressure levels • on (some or all) model levels For details, check here(or in the COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation Plan!)

  11. Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Different output for COPS and MAP D-PHASE domains • ensembles (D-PHASE domain) • single level fields (22, 3-hourly) • upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, 3-hourly) • deterministic driving models (D-PHASE domain) • single level fields (41, hourly) • upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly)

  12. Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored • high-resolution deterministic models • single level fields (41, hourly), upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly), and upper-air fields on model levels up to 4000m above msl (180, hourly) for D-PHASE domain • additionally, but for COPS domain and 1.6.2007 – 31.8.2007, only • single level fields (41, every 15 minutes) • upper-air fields on (9) pressure levels (99, every 15 minutes) • all upper-air fields on (60) model levels (660, every 15 minutes)

  13. Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Output format: GRIB1 (details to be specified by WG-DI) Estimated storage space: • ensembles 311 GB • PEPS and micro-PEPS 184 GB • deterministic driving models 337 GB • high-resolution models (D-PHASE domain) 8461 GB • high-resolution models (COPS domain) 7456 GB • total storage space for all models 16752 GB

  14. Atmospheric model data: Visualisation • Generation of atmospheric model products with a common plotting software (which will be provided by COPS) to ensure uniform ‘look and feel’. Options: • Generation on CPU and disk at M&D (triggered by COPS or model providers). • Generation on computational environment of model providers. List of products to be defined … • If possible, use of common visualisation tool and/or platform.

  15. Questions to COPS (and observational data providers) … • List of atmospheric model output variables ok? • Input for list of model products? • Any alerts needed? • Anything missing? • … ?

  16. Other international collaborations • Meteorisk (http://www.meteorisk.info) • Joint visualisation platform • THORPEX/TIGGE • ETReC07 • B08FDP/RDP • COST 731

  17. D-PHASE: Milestones • Completion of MAP D-PHASE Implementation Plan (and COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation Plan) as soon as possible, preferably until the MAP D-PHASE Meeting in Vienna (6 – 8 Nov 2006), e.g., • specification of output variables, output format, model products, visualisation platform, and data flow • Dry run: 26.2 – 2.3.2007 • data archive up and running • model output ready • generation of model products implemented • data flow established • visualisation platform set up

  18. D-PHASE: Organisation • International Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK) • Working Groups • WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) • WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) • WG-VER: Verificationchair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) • WG-DP: Data policychair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH) • Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch • For details: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phase

  19. 1st MAP D-PHASE Meeting • 6 – 8 November 2006 • Vienna (‘Springer Schlössl’), Austria • Topics: • Probabilistic atmospheric and hydrological modelling • Perturbations in high-resolution atmospheric and hydrological models • New generation of high-resolution NWP models • Hydrological modelling and verification • Verification of ensemble forecasts • Object oriented and grid point verification • Nowcasting related to heavy orographically induced precipitation • Cost/loss analysis and societal impact • Needs and experience of forecasters and (end) users • Case studies in heavy precipitation and flood forecasting • Check out http://www.meteorologie.at/dphase_info.htm

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