Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

1. Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST) David Downey International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004

2. In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) “Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%” “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety” “Improve Safety Worldwide”

3. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety Hull loss accident rate

4. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety Airplanes in service 32,495 17,357 Boeing 11,693 2002 2021 Departures, Millions Hull loss accident rate

5. Our goal We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety Airplanes in service 32,495 17,357 Boeing 11,693 Hull loss accidentsper year 2002 2021 Business as usual Departures, Millions Hull loss accident rate

7. Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight GENERAL AVIATION Into Terrain CABIN SAFETY Aeronautical Loss of Control Decisionmaking Passenger Interference Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage Into Terrain Approach and Landing Child Restraint Survivability Weather Turbulence Runway Incursions HUMAN FACTORS IMPROVED DATA IN OPERATIONS & & ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE

8. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

9. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry Government • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer

10. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST • Data analyses Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

11. CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan • Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST • Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed • 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements • 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies. • Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 • Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported by Government and Industry

12. CAST Safety Plan Specifics

13. CAST Safety Plan 25 Completed Safety Enhancements • Safety Culture • Maintenance Procedures • Flight Crew Training • Air Traffic Controller Training • Uncontained Engine Failures • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • Standard Operating Procedures • Precision Approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

14. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) 21 Committed Safety Enhancements • Policies and Procedures • Aircraft Design • Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) • Runway Incursion Prevention • Precision Approaches (additional projects) 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

15. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 80% 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 70% Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 60% 7000 50% 6000 Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 40% 5000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 4000 30% 3000 20% 2000 10% 1000 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST-050

16. Safety Plan Benefits • Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry • Current accident cost per flight is approximately $76 cycle • Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle Safety is morally required and is also good for business

17. Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 73% Risk reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

18. Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total CFIT Evac Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Sys-Comp Eng-UCEF Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision

20. Safety Metrics Examples

21. International Outreach

22. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* C.I.S.1 Europe 0.7 JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 China 0.5 United States and Canada 0.4 Middle East 3.1 Asia 1.7 (Excluding China) Africa 13.3 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Oceania 0.0 World 1.0 Accidents per million departures 1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. * 2003 Preliminary Information 11/1/03 REG-053a

23. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* COSCAP CIS Just starting Europe 0.7 C.I.S.1 JSSI 35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction COSCAP’s Asia 12 SEs on plan 60% reduction JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 United States and Canada 0.4 China 0.5 CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction Middle East 3.1 Asia 1.7 (Excluding China) Africa 13.3 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 ASET Just forming up PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + Oceania 0.0 World 1.0 Accidents per million departures 1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. * 2003 Preliminary Information 27 May 2004 -KLO