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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

Post Deyr 2010/11. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia. 26 th January 2011. Information for Better Livelihoods. Northeast. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Deyr 2010-11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage: . Climate.

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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  1. Post Deyr 2010/11 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 26th January 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Northeast Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  2. Deyr 2010-11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage:

  3. Climate Performance of the Season Deyr 2010/11 Overall statement: The overall seasonal performance in Northeast was poor except in the localized areas of western Burtinle, Northern Galkacyo, Iskushuban and Caluula districts. Start of Season: Started on time in 3rd dekad of September in Hawd along the border, but the rains were generally patchy and less intensive. Performance: No significant rains occurred in NE regions. Bari region: The overall rainfall performance was poor except in parts of Caluula district. Nugal region: Generally poor rainfall except from patchy rains along the borderline of western Burtinle district and Ethiopia. Northern Mudug:No rains in the entire region with the exception of localized areas in northern Galkacyo.

  4. Climate Vegetation Conditions NDVI at the end of December 2010 Pasture and Browse condition Overall pasture and water availability deteriorated in most parts of Bari, Nugal andnorth Mudug regions with the exception of Caluula and localized area in western Burtinle, bordering with the Somali region of Ethiopia.

  5. Climate Water Conditions Water Situation: Availability &Access to Water in all Livelihood zones of Northeast is very poor as the Deyr rains missed. RFE shows 0-25mm which is 0-20% of the LTM

  6. Civil Insecurity Overall situation: Stable security situation in all of Northeast apart from: B/Beyla: Tension related to clan retaliation in localized rural areas of Beyla district. Galkacyo towns: Resource based conflict in northern Galkacyo Increased presence of sea pirates directly impacting fishing livelihoods.

  7. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Livestock Migration

  8. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  9. Livestock Livestock Exports-Bossaso

  10. Livestock Water Prices Kalabayr Significant water price increases starting from September indicating water shortages due to Deyr season rain failure Early commercial water trucking is ongoing in all livelihood zones Prices of water range is SoSh 80,000-150,000 in Bari region. In Nugal and Mudug region the water price is between SoSh: 100,000-200,000 for one drum of water Accumulated debts of poor pastorals is mainly incurred with water for livestock and human. Debts level range US$ 300-400 in Bari region while in Nugaal & Mudug ranges US$ 200-300 RAKO

  11. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Dried up shallow well. Xamurre, Qandala Bari, FSNAU, Dec ’10 Water crisis in GaldogobMudug, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

  12. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Poor L/S feeding with leaves, Darmadow, Qandala, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10 Carcasses of Deyr off-spring, Iskushuban, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10

  13. Deyr 2010/11Local Cereal Flow

  14. MarketsRegional Trends in Cereal Prices (Red Rice) 1 2 3 Regional trends in imported rice prices in: 1- Garowe market 2- Galkayomarket 3- Bosassomarket

  15. MarketsLivestock Prices 1 2 3 Local goat prices: 1 -Garowe market 2 -Bossasomarket 3 -Galkayo market

  16. MarketsTerms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice) 2 1 3 1 -Garowe market 2 -Bossasomarket 3 -Galkayo market

  17. Markets Trend in imported commodity prices compared to exchange rate

  18. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

  19. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

  20. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation, July, 2010 Nutrition Situation, January, 2010

  21. Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: HAWD: HE - NUGAL Eyl dist. (75% P HE; 25%P & 25%M AFLC); other districts (25%P HE, 75% P AFLC); Addun: HE -NUGAL & N. Mudug (50%P HE; 50%P AFLC; 100%M AFLC); Sool Plateau: BFI High Risk to AFLC(25%P AFLC); Coastal Deeh: BARI AFLC HR to HE(25%P HE; 75%P and 25%M AFLC); EYL and JARIBAAN – HE (100%P HE; 50%M AFLC); GOLIS-GAGAB – AFLC (100%P) -Watch • Main Contributing Factors: • Three previous seasons of poor rains (Golis/Gagaab and Karkaar/Dharoor zones) • Below normal or failed Deyr2010/11 rainfall in all livelihoods • Failed production of frankincense and loss of fishing activities (East Golis/Gagaab, Coastal Deeh and Karkaar/Dharoor zones) • Decreasing livestock herd sizes and low productivity • High death of Deyr off-spring • Low Terms of Trade • Poor infrastructure and difficult market access

  22. IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

  23. IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones

  24. IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

  25. The End

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