Safety Initiatives Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

1. Safety InitiativesCommercial AviationSafety Team (CAST) John Hickey, DirectorAircraft Certification Service, AIR-1

2. Agenda • Status and Progress to Date • Background • Runway Incursions • Current Annual Safety Plan • Business Model • International Collaboration • Outreach Efforts • Prioritized Safety Research • CAST Future Direction

3. In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety 1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal 1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards

4. The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction • FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data • Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world

5. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF IATA AAPA ATAC APFA • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO • JAA • TCC • NATCA Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) *Representing GE and RR 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 5

6. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

7. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST • Data analyses Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 7

8. Excluding all security events 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 8

9. Integrated Strategic Safety Plan • Contains 46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships • 21 complete/25 committed and underway • Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term • Foundation for U.S-driven continuous improvements in worldwide aviation safety

10. Runway Incursions • Identified as an important contributor to risk in the initial Safer Skies agenda • CAST chartered analysis (JSAT) and implementation (JSIT) teams to study Runway Incursions and develop Safety Enhancements to address them • 10 of the 46 Safety Enhancements on the Integrated Strategic Safety Plan relate to Runway Incursions • 2 of the 10 R&D Projects and Studies relate to Runway Incursions

11. Completed Safety Enhancements • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • CFIT Standard Operating Procedures • Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles – Increase constant angle approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP) • CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training • CFIT Prevention training • Air Traffic Controller CFIT training • PAI-VGSI at runway ends • PAI-DME at airports • RI SOPs – Ground Operations (General Aviation) • RI SOPs - Tow tug operators

12. Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d) • Safety Culture • Industry will include essential safety information in the appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs) • FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM) database • CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible • Maintenance Procedures • FAA published guidance on: • Servicing landing struts • Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors • Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring maintenance events) • Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys to verify guidance was being followed • ALAR Flight crew training • Uncontained Engine Failures • FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 12

13. Committed Plan Elements • Policies and Procedures • Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools • Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical safety information • Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency • FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control related accidents • Aircraft Design • FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness • FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance • FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight designs for new type designs • Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type designs (i.e. interactive checklists) • FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding Displays and Alerting Systems for new designs • Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft • FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new airplane designs not equipped with evaporative systems • Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 13

14. Committed Plan Elements (cont.) • Flight Crew Training • Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all operators • Industry will incorporate a human factors-related training guide into training programs and SOPs • Precision approach implementation (PAI) FAA and Industry will develop: • Recommended procedures, displaysand training that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument approaches • Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima • Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS) 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 14

15. Committed Plan Elements (cont.) Runway Incursions - • Enhanced airport surveillance equipment • Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) • Ground operations (Commercial Aviation) • Vehicle operators • ATC • Clearance readback requirements • Training – • Pilots • ATC • Enhanced Tower Controller training • CRM

16. Resource Cost vs. Risk Reduction 80% 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 70% Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 60% 7000 50% 6000 Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 40% 5000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 4000 30% 3000 20% 2000 10% 1000 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST-050

17. Safety Plan Benefits Prediction of a 64% risk reduction that also results in approximately $540 million annual savings to the industry • Current accident cost per flight is approximately $90 cycle • Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $58 per flight cycle Safety is good for business

18. Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historic cost of accidents/flt. cyc 80 Savings ~ $58/Flt. Cyc Or ~ $540 Million Dollars/Yr. Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 64 % Risk reduction 40 20 Cost of Accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

19. Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CFIT Total Evac Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Sys-Comp Eng-UCEF Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 19

20. Safety Metrics • Purpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring • Assumption: Measurement of accident rate is not effective means of identifying program success • Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in existence (ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.) • Direct link is through the problem statements identified by data analysis • Identify events that reflect the problem • Identify available method for measuring the event frequency • Establish event baseline • Identify trend

21. Safety Metrics Examples 20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 21

22. ICAO COSCAP (Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness) Europe JSSI: Joint Safety Strategy Initiative Central and South America PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team East Africa African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO West Africa Flight Safety Foundation Asia/Pacific Association of Asia Pacific Airlines CAST Driven International Safety Activities

23. CAST Future Direction • Execute the CAST approved Safety Plan • Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on metrics and results • Continue the development of a proactive incident-based risk mitigation methodology • Improve the CAST process • Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs • Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives • Catalog the many ongoing safety initiatives that dilute limited resources and identify opportunities for program integration and efficiency improvements

24. Prioritized R&D and Study Recommendations • Captured all R&D and study recommendations from all JSAT/JSIT activity • Consolidated and grouped like products • Tested all against CAST Dataset for effectiveness • Recommending those that perform well against dataset

25. Conclusions • CAST has an effective data driven process • CAST has become the model for Industry/Government consensus building on safety • CAST brings together all the key players – Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Employee Groups – Government • Predicted 64% risk reduction • Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST recommendations • World-wide leadership • Need your support to shape the future