Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Gu 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 17th August, 2011 Bay/Bakool Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Gu 2011 Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations – Bay and Bakool • FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for data collection of crop, livestock and markets information • Food security information was obtained through key informant and household focus group discussions

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Bay Region: • 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral • High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low • Potential) • Primary sources of income of poor: self-employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops. • Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase • Primary livelihood asset of poor: land, cattle, sheep/goats

4. Main Livelihood GroupsSources of Food and Income • Bakool Region: • 1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral) • Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary food sources of poor: food purchase • Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle • 2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral) • Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self-employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase. • Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production.

5. Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall • Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay • and Bakool regions. Rainfall performance in terms • of intensity, duration, distribution and coverage • over time was below normal in both regions. • Start of Gu rains: Effectively started in third dekad of April and interrupted by a long dry spell in the first two dekads of May; restarted in the third dekad of May but ended early in all livelihoods. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: • Most areas of Bakool received 20-60% of normal, with the exception of small pockets, which received 60-120%. The satellite imagery data indicating 140-180% of normal rainfall in east of Tieglow has not been confirmed through ground truthing. • Most of Bay regions received 40-80% of normal rainfall.

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bay NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

7. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bakool NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

8. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • The overall civil security situation in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas were relatively stable. However, in El Berde and Yeed in Rabdhure district (Bakool) is unstable due to recurrent political confrontations between the armed oppositions and the TFG. • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Limited pastoral mobility. • Restricted cross-border trade with Ethiopia. • Disruptions of trade affecting both rural and urban areas.

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region

10. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region

11. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates

12. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Regional Trend in Gu Cereal Production (Bay Region) Regional Trends in Gu Cereal Production (Bakool Region)

13. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bay Region) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bakool Region)

14. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1 1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Lafaale Village, Wajid, Bakool, FSNAU, July ‘11 2. Sorghum Crop Failure . Bulo Addoy, Dinsor, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11 . 3. Sorghum Crop Failure with Crop Fodder Harvest. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11. 2 3

15. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Map Bay supplies limited sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo and Banadir (Mogadishu). Currently, Bakool gets also cereals from Somali Region of Ethiopia. Bay region receives some maize from Somali region of Ethiopia through cross-border trade in Gedo and/or Bakool.

16. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay) • Factors influencing sorghum prices: • Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. • High demand for sorghum due to crop production failure in southern Somalia • Some decline of sorghum prices between June and July 2011 due to some new sorghum harvest • Sorghum flow-in from Ethiopia Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool)

17. Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate, Baidoa - Bay • Factors Influencing Wage Labour: • Low agricultural activities and low labour demand due to poor seasonal performance Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate, Hudur - Bakool

18. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Baidoa – Bay (4 kg/ daily wage) • Factor Affecting ToT decline: • Significant increase in sorghum prices • Decrease of daily wage rate Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Hudur – Bakool (3 kg/daily wage)

19. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011 • Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions • Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool region • Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. • Normal migration for Bay and abnormal to normal for Bakool region.

20. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool

21. Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa – Bay) • Factors Influencing L. Goat prices: • High supply of livestock into markets • Poor livestock body condition • Low demand for livestock currently. Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Hudur – Bakool)

22. Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Baidoa - Bay): 38 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 126 kg/head in Jul ‘10 • Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): • High cereal prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets • Slightly improved ToT in Jul ‘11 due to increased goat and reduced red sorghum prices Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Hudur - Bakool): 24 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 103kg/head in Jul ‘10

23. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Bay and Bakool Mixed Livestock Body Condition Near Average Goat Body Condition. Kobon, Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. Poor Cattle Body Condition. Bulo Gomor , Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. Early dried water-catchment, Bakaar weyn, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, July 2011

24. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: • Increased fuel prices • Increased international food prices • Decreased commercial import supply from Northeast due to Monsoon season, which limited sea freight deliveries to the ports.

25. Summary of Nutrition Findings

26. BAY/BAKOOL Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 • Aggravating Factors: • Poor access to humanitarian assistance (water, health and nutrition-MCH and outreach services, SFP, OTP and SC) • Increased seasonal morbidity levels, especially ARI and AWD (confirmed cholera in Baidoa). Unconfirmed whooping cough, measles and unknown diseases. • Deteriorated food security due to crop failure and weakened livestock body condition following poor Deyr/Gu 2011 rain performance and limited opportunities for income • Low measles immunization and vitamin A supplementation status • Limited access to health services, safe water and sanitation facilities in both regions • Limited investment and humanitarian space due to political instability and civil insecurity • Chronically poor infant and young child feeding practices • Mitigating Factors: • Reliance on social support • Limited health and nutrition services in Baidoa, Huddur, Dinsor, Rabdure and Wajid

27. BAY/BAKOOLSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Bay: 100%P and 50%M in HE; 50%M in AFLC Bakool: 100%P in HE and 100%M AFLC Rural Population: Bakool Agropastoral (75%P Famine and 25%P HE; 50%M HE ;50%M AFLC); Bay Agropastoral High Potential (100%P in Famine and 100%M in HE); Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential (100%P Famine, 100% M HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (75%P Famine, 25% P HE, 50%M AFLC; 50%M HE) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 liters ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 liters ppp day -human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

28. BAY/BAKOOLSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Main Influencing Factors: • Poor Gu ‘11 cereal production: Bay -19% of PWA; Bakool - 17% of PWA • Depleted cereal stocks in Bay due to consecutives seasons of crop failure (2) and Bakool (8) • Loss of cattle, decline in camel, sheep/goats herd size in Bakool resulting from prolonged drought (from Deyr 2007/08 to Gu 2011) • Significant decline in cattle herds and cattle value in Bay region • Poor livestock body condition and abnormal migration • Reduced milk availability in both regions • Significant increase in prices of both local cereals and imported commodities • Reduced labour opportunities and access to income due to low Gu2011 agricultural activities • Weak purchasing power reflected in the decline of ToT (between Jun ’10 and Jun ‘11): ToT daily labour/red sorghum in Bakool - from 5kg to 2kg and Bay - from 12kg to 3kg; ToT goat and red sorghum in Bakool - 98kg to 20kg/head; Bay - 145kg to 25 kg • Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups, particularly in Bakool region (El-Berde, parts of Rabdhure) • Limited humanitarian support

29. BAY/BAKOOLRural Population in Crisis by District

30. BAY/BAKOOLRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

31. BAY/BAKOOLUrban Population in Crisis

32. The End