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Climate Change Scenarios Development: Enhancing Low Emission Land Use Planning

Learn to model climate change impacts, develop baseline assessments, and analyze future scenarios for low emission land use planning. Understand variability, uncertainty, and forecast tools to create sustainable strategies.

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Climate Change Scenarios Development: Enhancing Low Emission Land Use Planning

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  1. SESSION PLAN

  2. Acknowledgements Low Emissions Land Use Planning Development Team

  3. Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP)SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS Overview Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development

  4. LELUP Framework 1.1. Regulatory Assessments 1.2. Stakeholder Engagement 1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives Low Emission Land Use Planning 2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1. Modeling Future Trends 3.3. Scenario Assessment 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction

  5. Overview NOW + / - Scenario 3 BAU Past Trend / Current Condition Drivers of Change + / - Scenario 2 Goal / Objective + / - Scenario 1 M&E Time/Space Rules of the Game

  6. Learning Objectives At the end of Section 3, learners will be able to: • Recognize and apply the concept of modeling an environment including climate change • Develop a baseline assessment with the BAU scenario including climate change • Identify series of future potential scenarios and analyze their impacts(socio-economic, environmental) CLIMATE CHANGE

  7. Define a Scientific Model Understand Conceptual Model Quantify Mathematics Model Visualize Graphic Model Operationalize Operational Model Relevant aspects Scientific discipline

  8. What are Models used for? • Conceptual/understanding • Strategic decisions • Tactical decisions

  9. Exercise: Model linkages

  10. Environmental Model +

  11. Climate Change Model Results

  12. Climate Change Trends In Mekong Average precipitation in the lower Mekong River basin

  13. Climate Change and Land Use

  14. Define : Variability Variability: • The quality, state, or degree of being variable or changeable. Measure of variability: • How much the performance of the group deviates from the mean or median.

  15. Define: Uncertainty Uncertainty: • The lack of certainty or a state of having limited knowledge Measurement of Uncertainty: • A set of possible states or outcomes

  16. Exercise: Uncertainty In the context of Climate change and Land use management, what are the components of uncertainty? • Economic • Social • Environmental • Institutional

  17. Exercise: Compare What are the common points and the differences between these terms and how would it influence a model? Variability Uncertainty

  18. Forecast Tool Example: GEOMOD • Current state, threats and future state of deforestation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia • (A) Protected in relation to the area deforested (red) between 1997 and 2003. • (B) Threat map of future deforestation, produced from reclassifying the SFC map and masking out already deforested areas. • (C) Simulated deforestation in between 2003 (present) and 2013 (future at the time). • Source:http://iopscience.iop.org/

  19. Rapid Economic Growth Climate Change Projected for 2100 Slower Economic Growth Climate Change and Agriculture, Chito P. Medina

  20. Example : Environmental Model Concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere for the three emissions cases, 1990–2100

  21. What is a Scenario Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play (UNEP 2002) Scenarios Planning

  22. Scenarios - Plausibility

  23. Baseline Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against NOW Drivers of Change BASELINE Past Trend / Current Condition Performance Scenario Time/Space

  24. Business As Usual (BAU) Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against Scenario NOW Performance Drivers of Change Past Trend / Current Condition Business As Usual (BAU) Time/Space

  25. Reference Level: 3 Types Reference Level (Historic Trend) NOW Reference Level (Policy) Drivers of Change Reference Level (Historic Mean) Past Trend / Current Condition Time/Space

  26. Scenario Development Process 3 main steps of Scenario Development, developed by  Van Notten Project goal Process design Scenario Contents

  27. Generic Scenario Process by Jager et al., 2007 3 key steps: • Clarify purpose • Lay foundation • Develop and test

  28. Principle of Participatory Stakeholders involvement

  29. What is a good scenario ? Plausible Vivid Interactive By Xiang & Clarke

  30. How to choose a set of scenarios ? Does it respond to the need of the stakeholders? Does it meet the purpose of the scenarios fixed before?

  31. Cost-Benefit Assessment Drivers of Change NOW + / - Scenario 3 Goal / Objective BAU Past Trend / Current Condition + / - Scenario 2 Time/Space + / - Scenario 1

  32. Cost-Benefit Assessment • Identification of significant impacts • Measurement of benefits • Measurement of costs • Net value/ Ratio of Cost-Benefit

  33. Conclusion We have moved through a process that allows us to determine a set of possible future scenarios that may allow us to move away from Business As Usual.

  34. Group Discussion • 1.1 Regulatory Assessments • 1.2 Stakeholder Engagement • 1.3 Planning & Development Goals & Objectives Land Use Planning & Climate Change • 2.1 Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs • 2.2 Understanding Historic Land Use Change • 2.3 Data & Capacity Gap Assessment • 3.1 Modeling Future Trends • 3.3 Scenario Assessment • 3.2 Business as Usual Baseline Construction

  35. References • Modeling the interaction of climate change: water availability and socio-economic scenarios on cereal production Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, AEA Group & University of East Anglia • http://clarklabs.org • Province of Manitoba: Guide for Conducting Municipal GHG Inventories and Forecasts in Manitoba • Modeling REDD Baselines using IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler, IDRISI Focus Paper • Climate Adaptation : Risk, Uncertainty, Decision making, UKCP Technical support, May 2013 • Characterization Uncertainty for regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation Decision • The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Clarke & Xiang • Developing a scenario development approach and the alternative land use scenario, the case of Pakal, Benovo, SambikerepDistrict of Surabaya City

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